Estoy de acuerdo contigo y lo he repetido muchas veces aquí, no es un sector para todo el mundo y hay que estar muy, muy pendiente.
El CEO de DSSI fue muy conservador y bastante bearish, o cuanto menos prudente. Normal teniendo en cuenta la incertidumbre que vivimos y lo cambiante del sector. Además apuntó que están teniendo muchos problemas para descargar. Apenas han recomprado por prudencia y destacaría estas citas:
That's the question of the day. What is near-term? I think if near-term, if you just focus on the rest of the second quarter, that's right around the corner. And I think everyone feels good about that. I think in our mind, it's -- tell me what the third and fourth quarter really looked like and quite frankly, in the first quarter, right when we were starting to do our buyback, it got increasingly more opaque as to what we saw in the third and fourth quarter. And so, as you have all these ships going into floating storage, not understanding or not having a strong point of view about how that unwinds. So it could be not so bad or it could be much worse. And so until we feel that we have a better idea as to how that sort of plays out, I think we are cautious. So we stopped purchasing shares back. It's still an incredibly attractive price, but you just need to be sure that you can weather the storm.
We're still very much believers in the long-term tanker story. And I think, if anything, this uncertainty will help keep a damper on the supply side, maybe even longer and more than we had hoped 6 months ago. So I think in the long-term, we're still very excited about where it's going. But we can see a trough coming with record inventories and demand destruction. We will be in a trough earnings position sometime in the future. And how long it lasts and how bad it gets, is probably a billion dollar question for our industry.
To us, it's not about -- it's not really about the target or cash balances today. It's about the uncertainty. And shipping usually gets into trouble, tankers usually get into trouble because cycles are unpredictable. And the industry does not really see it turning into a prolonged downturn or a sharp downturn until we're already in the midst of it. We feel that this next trough, well, hopefully short and an isolated impact from the pandemic, we feel it's very, very visible. So I think we're being more conservative today than we certainly would have been and we certainly had hoped to be when we put the share buyback program in place in March
En cuanto a las ventas de SALT, soy consciente, la semana que viene presentan resultados y espero que aporten algo de luz acerca del tema. Su situación financiera no es la mejor, pero es un movimiento raro.
También hace días vendieron parte de su posición la familia de Euronav.
El sector es muy volátil, depende de muchas variables y aunque se cumpliese la tesis de que en unos años vivamos un superciclo, es más probable que antes veamos precios mas bajos. De hecho para que se cree ese desequilibrio es necesaria esa destrucción que sólo llegará con rates muy bajos y bajada en la valoración de los activos.
He repetido muchas veces que cada uno debe saber donde se mete y no seguir recomendaciones de nadie ni fiarse de nadie, ni muchisimo menos, he repetido muchas veces que yo no se de casi nada y lo único que trato es de aprender.
