Thanks for your explained answer. I will come to you on Monday because I am outside of the office and I don't have all the information here, but I found some mistakes in my first view. (please, take it in a good way)
First of all, GLNG unrestricted cash position is not 250M. Please, check that Hilli add 75M in free cash unrestricted. It was a post-quarter event.
Also, you shouldn't take into account Golar Power cash flow as Golar power needs to reinvest all its cash flow in order to deliver the coming projects. By the way, they are amazing projects at a fantastic ROE. Give time to Golar Power, this company is a beast!
GLNG paid dividend in Q1 and Q2, so dividend should be paid again in Q1 2020, not Q4 2019. We should only model 4 dividends, but we all know that the dividend will be replaced by a buyback program. Maybe they will keep a little dividend, but a buyback program is more valuable at this point.
I don't fully understand your view here. Intangible part: TRS. How much outflow are you modeling? in Q4 they bought 1.5M and 1.5M will be repurchased in the 1Q 2020.
GMLP dividend: I modeled a 50% cut on the dividend in 2020, but I think they have some options in their hands. Next three months will be very interesting.
They took that TL (150M) that ends just before Gimi because they plan to leverage Gimi and it will free around 300M of net cash at better rates. I think it is a smart move.
Regarding the shipping assets and the spin-off. Debt is pledged against each ship, not against the whole company. Of course, GLNG will need to contribute with a small amount, but I'm not seeing any problem here. The spin-off should be a special dividend to us, only in order to deconsolidate the shipping segment and reduce the volatility of the P&L and improve market understanding. Fingers crossed.
As I said you, I will improve my answer next monday, but I hope my answer help you in order to modify these mistakes.
Happy to help and discuss GLNG numbers. :)
Freedom is driven by determination
Freedom is driven by determination