Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

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#104569

Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

Bueno, no lo ha aumentado aún. Sólo ha lanzado un guiño al mercado para quién quiera leerlo. Dudo que haya muchos inversores que lean el PR del dividendo!
Dicho esto, este año ha empezado bastante bien 
#104570

Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

Babcock


Two years ago, Babcock International finally persuaded the FTSE classification authorities that it should sit in the “aerospace and defence” sector rather than in “support services”.

Fair enough, given its deep entwinement with the Ministry of Defence and its civil fleet of emergency helicopters. In reality, Babcock was fed up with being bracketed with all the losers in support services: Serco, Capita, G4S, Mitie, Interserve, Kier Group, and, the biggest loser of them all, Carillion.

This week, shares in Babcock fell below £2 for the first time since 2005. The company, which boasts an order book of £17 billion, has seen its stock market value dwindle to a little over £1 billion.

This is a company that was in the FTSE 100 three years ago. It is now at the bottom of the top 300 London-listed stocks. The shares have lost 25 per cent since a trading update last week and have nearly halved in the past two months. The stock was above £6 a year ago.

What is spooking investors is whether— and the irony is not lost — Babcock is heading the way of its old cohort in support services: admissions that onerous contracts haven’t been properly accounted for, the spectre of large writedowns, issues with cash, and the need for a kitchen-sink restructuring and a painfully diluting fundraiser.


In short, the fear is that Babcock is on the trajectory to a multi-year rescue job that the likes of Serco, Capita, G4S, Mitie, Interserve and Kier went through some years ago and from which they are yet to recover — and in the case of Carillion never did.


The back story
Babcock has become as crucial a contractor for the MoD as BAE and Rolls-Royce. It operates the Devonport naval dockyard, maintains and helps build the submarine fleet at Faslane and Barrow-in-Furness, and builds Royal Navy warships at Rosyth.

It undertakes engineering support and flying training for the RAF. Babcock is also the training contractor to the Royal Navy and Royal Marines, although it is to lose this work to Capita, of all people. It also trains engineers and performs maintenance for the Army.

The majority of its £4.8 billion annual income comes from the British taxpayer. It employs 34,000 people.


The present Babcock is the creation of the late Peter Rogers, a larger-than-life deal-maker who was chief executive from 2003 to 2016. He took an engineering company and turned it into a public sector contractor with successive big acquisitions: £350 million for Devonport, £1.3 billion for VT Group — the former Vosper Thornycroft — and £1.6 billion for Avincis, the old Bond helicopters group.

Corporate governance
There has long been an issue of trust, with some investors growing weary of poor communications and unexpected “nasties” buried deep in the accounts.

The blame for that fractious relationship with the City was laid at the door of Mike Turner, a combative former chief executive of BAE, who had been on the Babcock board for 20 years and its chairman for ten before his departure in 2019.

Babcock had been raising governance eyebrows for some time, not least in a 2016 shareholder revolt over Mr Rogers’ payoff on retirement.

After doubt was cast last week by Babcock’s new management on past accounting policies, the spotlight is now shining on how or why PWC has been hiding in plain sight as the company’s auditor for the past 19 years. It is that sort of cosy relationship that became a big issue at Carillion and its 19-year auditor KPMG. It is understood Babcock is due to ditch PWC soon.


The current crisis
David Lockwood was brought in as chief executive in September. His sidekick David Mellors joined Babcock shortly afterwards as finance director. Their last tour of duty was shaking up Cobham, the troubled aerospace group, which was then sold to private equity in 2019. Mr Lockwood immediately launched a strategic review of Babock’s portfolio of peripheral businesses and Mr Mellors has launched an accounting review.

The messages are worrying. There is a “cultural issue” over the company’s relationship with cash. Babcock is too “federated”, that is, its divisions operate in silos. There will be asset and income writedowns.

All this comes on top of the impact of Covid-19, which has brought nine-month profits down by more than a third to £202 million. Net debt is up by nearly a third at £1.2 billion. Ten weeks before the end of its financial year, management confesses it has no idea what the outcome will be.

What happens next?
The downward drift in the share price comes with investors left hanging for at least three months, as the board does not expect to share news on sell-offs, shake-ups and accounting impacts until its full-year results in May.

If Mr Lockwood’s history at Cobham is any guide, the language around Babcock’s previous errors will be blunt and fruity.

Unlike Cobham, Babcock shareholders cannot wait around for a rescue takeover because, as a national security risk, government is unlikely allow a change in ownership. The time for a merger with Serco, much mooted two summers ago, seems to have passed.

The company declined to comment further on its trading update of last week but reported that someone sees value in the shares: the chief executive, finance director and chairwoman Ruth Cairnie spent nearly £180,000 between them today buying shares at a little under £2 each.

Freedom is driven by determination

#104571

Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

Habría que hacer una comparación histórica a ver si las acciones por debajo de 1$ tienen un crecimiento estadísticamente significativo o no.
Pero todo apunta a que hasta el más tonto del pueblo esta comprando acciones de lo que sea.
#104572

Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

Muchas gracias Gabriel. Con la subida de las últimas semanas, ¿consideras una buena entrada a los precios de hoy?. Muchas gracias por el trabajo. 
#104573

Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

Ojalá te hagan caso.

El dividendo pone cada vez un suelo más alto en la cotización y menos downside.

Freedom is driven by determination

#104574

Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

Yo sí creo que Ant tiene moat. Es el ecosistema de BABA. El uso de Alipay es dominante, eso te lleva a Ant sin salir del ecosistema. Desde alipay das a un icono y te prestan 200 yuanes inmediatos con un reconocimiento facial conectado con algo tipo docusign y de la misma te venden un seguro de la moto dando a otro icono y haciendo una foto a la moto con el móvil. No sé, cosas de esas. Si tienes a la gente en tus aplicaciones tienes poder y moat. 
En un banco clásico van avanzando pero vamos, que te dan una simple tarjeta y tienes que firmar 10 papeles, scan y mandar copia a oficina o llevar a una oficina y que te lo manden por valija y cosas de estas prehistóricas...
Total, que el gobierno ve venir una IPO histórica y 1000M de asiáticos contratando productos bancarios y de seguros en dos días y si llega una crisis gorda o algo y Ant no tiene respaldo, provisiones, etc. se lía gordísima. El PCC gobierna con puño de hierro y recela de Ma y lo que quieran, pero está claro que había que meter mano a esto antes de que fuese imparable. 
Por otro lado BABA es mucho más que el cloud. Mírate alguna presentación del ID. Hacen chips que tienen mucho futuro, el Cloud, las plataformas de e-comerce, lazada, logística con Cainiao, etc...
Es una rueda. La generación de caja de las plataformas más maduras alimentan las nuevas que van cogiendo tracción hasta ser rentables y así sucesivamente. El Cloud ya dentro de poco será rentable. Pero mira el pipeline de rentabilidad que viene o como lo quieras llamar. 
#104575

Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

Joder Zackary, que movimiento más inesperado. No aguarda a la teórica mejora de márgenes con la nueva logística que compensará el problema del fuel? No espera a que el mercado le ponga a los múltiplos de sus peers?
Yo sí la bajan a $28 ahí que voy. Si la bajan de $30 lo mismo voy también. 
#104576

Re: Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

Eso lo veo muy, muy difícil.

Este tipo de huecos no se cierran tan pronto hasta la parte superior.

Nos daríamos con un canto en los dientes si consigue llegar al límite inferior del gap en los 2,30 libras.

Yo saldré rápido si me da la ocasión, llevo unas cuantas acciones

Freedom is driven by determination

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