Earlier this month, I took my family on our first extended vacation far away from California, and we ran headlong into a flock of black swans. Real, breathing black swans. You’ve got to be kidding me. One cannot make this stuff up. Or so I thought.But, of course, this was indeed predictable. We were visiting Leeds Castle in Kent, England, and if I had done the work, I would have known about the flock of black swans that reside at this castle. And that is about how I view Mr. Taleb’s premise of the Black Swan. I have found markets to be anything but random, and I find many of the future events that are bound to be dismissed as random or explainable only in hindsight in fact can be foretold in time with the rhythm of history. If one does the work.
As for when to buy, I mix some barebones technical analysis into my strategy -‐ a tool held over from my days as a commodities trader.Nothing fancy. But I prefer to buy within 10% to 15% of a 52 week low that has shown itself to offer some price support.
As you know, I have a simple philosophy: sell on new lows.There are two reasons for this:1) Many people do this. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. I try to do it quicker.2) If I know something is a fundamental value and it breaks to new lows, the selling is irrational by definition and I don't want to be in the way of irrational selling. Better to wait for the buyers to show where they are willing to step up and give support.I suffered for several years trying to be stubborn in the face of irrational selling and all it got me was a lot of 50% haircuts on stocks that had already been too cheap. One of the biggest lessons I've learned was that PE 8 stocks can become PE 4 stocks and stay that way for a long time. AT&T's long-distance business is getting close to trading for 1X EBITDA, yet everyone looks at it like this big albatross around T's neck. Maybe in the future I'll get the long-distance biz for free. All we need is another $15 billion in lost market cap.That said, I love your rhetorical questions. Why do you think AT&T is getting hit?
There is no golf or other hobby to distract me. Seeing value is what I do.
What’s there to understand about Coke? The business is a KISS model. This gets to my value/short strategy. When people start claiming a business deserves a special valuation above all reasonable fundamental analysis (because of the “franchise”, because there’s so little institutional ownership for a big cap growth stock, because Buffett’s in it, because global expansion will provide endless opportunity, because ROE is so damned high, because it’s nearly a monopoly, because Buffett’s in it…), that’s a short, IMO.I just read a bunch of Graham, and he doesn’t deal with shorts (I assume it would be “speculation”), but EMT isn’t all that its panned to be either, IMO.Just trying to think independently,
2. The bulk of opportunities remain in undervalued, smaller, more illiquid situations that often represent average or slightly above-average businesses3. fully aware that wonderful businesses make wonderful investments only at wonderful prices, I will continue to seek out the bargains amid the refuse.4. It is likely, however, that the investors in the habit of overturning the most stones will find the most success.6. It is a tenet of my investment style that, on the subject of common stock investment, maximizing the upside means first and foremost minimizing the downside8. The Fund maintains a high degree of concentration - typically 15-25 stocks, or even less. Some or all of these stocks may be relatively illiquid.10. I certainly view volatility as my friend volatility is on sale because 99% of the institutions out there are doing their best to avoid it11. In essence, the stock market represents three separate categories of business. They are, adjusted for inflation, those with shrinking intrinsic value, those with approximately stable intrinsic value, and those with steadily growing intrinsic value. The preference, always, would be to buy a long-term franchise at a substantial discount from growing intrinsic value.12. Ick investing means taking a special analytical interest in stocks that inspire a first reaction of “ick.” I tend to become interested in stocks that by their very names or circumstances inspire unwillingness – and an “ick” accompanied by a wrinkle of the nose on the part of most investors to delve any further.14. I will always choose the dollar bill carrying a wildly fluctuating discount rather than the dollar bill selling for a quite stable premium.
Basicamente conocí a burry de rebote, entré en el mundo de la inversión value motivado por un documental de la bbc sobre Buffett, de ahi fui a bloomberg tv que tenía un montón de vídeos a modo biografía de grandes inversores y entre eso estaba michael, creo que me intereso mucho por dos motivos. El primero que nos parecíamos mucho a nivel emocional y social y tenia un punto de vista del mundo similar al mio,también tiendo a obsesionarme con una cosa y hasta que no llego a dominarla no paro. Y segundo me parecia algo único que un gestor exitoso tuviera todos sus teorias y pensamientos expuestos en un foro ( Siliconinvestor.com) entonces lei sus mas 4000 post asimilando ideas y formas de pensar., más que aprender a analizar empresas, me ayudó a enfocar mi estilo de inversión, aprendí lo importante que es NO ser un imitador de otro gurus, crearse un estilo propio asimilando las ideas que más se ajusten a tu perfil inversor.
Hola tzr3xv, agradezco todas las lecturas y comentarios; y por supuesto respondo a todos los foreros.
El vídeo se corta justo cuando Burry va a "cantar", esta vendría a ser la transcripción.
"Gold is also a favored investment as central banks issue debt and devalue their currencies, he said. Governments haven’t adequately addressed the causes of the financial crisis and may be sowing the seeds for future problems by borrowing, he said. In the U.S., lawmakers showed they didn’t understand how to prevent another crisis when they gave the Federal Reserve and Chairman Ben S. Bernanke additional authority, he said.
“The Federal Reserve, in my view, hadn’t seen this coming and in some ways, possibly contributed to the crisis,” he said. “Now, Bernanke is the most powerful Fed chairman in history. I’m not sure that’s the right response. The result tends to tell me they’re not getting it right.”
The Dodd-Frank Act, signed by President Barack Obama on July 21, creates a consumer bureau at the Fed to monitor banks for credit-card and mortgage lending abuses. The bill also gives the Fed chairman a seat on a newly created Financial Stability Oversight Council, which is supposed to spot and respond to emerging systemic risks."
Parece que Burry está preocupado por los posibles efectos de la inflación y la devaluación del dólar, posiblemente por ese motivo apueste como "hedge" por el suelo productivo y el oro.
Cuándo me refiero a los fundamentos me refiero a que el oro no es un activo financiero y por lo tanto no se puede valorar mediante el mismo "approach", como dice Warren Buffett, si reúnes todo el oro del planeta puedes tener un gigantesco cubo del precioso metal, al cabo de 50 años tendrás exactamente el mismo cubo gigantesco.
Pero reitero, la capacidad de análisis de Burry es descomunal y tiene sus motivos, pero a mi el oro no me atrae de la misma forma que las empresas que actúan en la economía productiva.