Hola Jinete!
Sí, hay recelo todavía, pero menos. Puede que convenga sacar ya un pie de la cama...
Los gestores de fondos están de los nervios con sus rendimientos anuales, así que salen a cazar de cara al final de año y las compras se tienen que notar. Y en USA la semana del día de Acción de Gracias es favorable (los pavos no opinan lo mismo), que a continuación tienen el Black Friday y los dolaretis corren por allí.
Mira cómo mordisquea Serge Berger: http://es.investing.com/analysis/los-alcistas-vuelven-al-parqu%C3%A9-por-acci%C3%B3n-de-gracias-216433
Copio el Asset Allocation Insight de Candriam que han sacado hoy:
Investors remained sceptical last Monday’s morning, two days after the terror attacks in Paris, wondering what could be the impact on the economy. While these attacks will stay in mind for a while, investors rapidly concluded that the economic impact would be limited, focusing more on the future decisions of the central banks, especially the Fed and the ECB.
The Federal Reserve seems more and more determinate to hike its rates in December. But US central bankers are also expecting a decrease in the long term potential growth of the United States, which comfort our view that we will not enter in an aggressive cycle of rising interest rates.
On the other side of the Pond, ECB president Mario Draghi reiterated that the European Central Bank will do everything possible to increase the inflation as quickly as possible, opening the door to further policy-easing measures by year-end.
In this context, we maintain our overweight on risky assets, especially equities. We consider that financial markets seem to have integrated the future actions of the Fed and the ECB. Even in the US, while the Fed is on the verge to increase its rates, equity markets are resilient, meaning that Janet Yellen's communication strategy is effective. We will keep a close eye on the next central banks meeting conclusions.
Our current investment strategy: EQUITIES VERSUS BONDS
We maintain an overexposure to equities:
- Macroeconomy in developed countries continue to show resilience faced to the economic slowdown in emerging economies.
-The monetary support from the ECB and the BOJ as well as the economic fundamentals in the euro zone and the US will support equities.
-Once the US central bank will proceed to the first rate hike, we think that the rate increase will be done gradually and with cautiousness.
-Valuations are still attractive compared to bonds.
REGIONAL EQUITY STRATEGY
-Our preference for euro zone equities remains unchanged, while we still underweight US equities. Supported by a firmer economic recovery, euro zone equities should benefit (better than their US counterparts) from low commodity prices caused by the economic slowdown in China. Within the euro zone, we have a tactical exposure towards the MIB. The agreement between Greece and its creditors should lead to a decrease in equity risk premium, especially for peripheral countries. We are still underweight on UK equities.
-We also remain positive on Japan, but we have already partially taken our profits on our overweight as we have reached our first target level.
-We still have an exposure to euro zone small caps, as they may benefit from better earnings growth and attractive valuations compared to large caps.
- We are neutral on emerging markets. Within the region, we keep a preference for Asia and have taken a direct exposure to Chinese equities.
BOND STRATEGY: We slightly decrease our duration on T-bonds.
- In a context of a moderate interest rate increase, we continue to prefer diversification away from government bonds.
-We have decided to take an exposure to US investment grade corporate bonds, hedged in duration.
-We also keep our exposure to high yield bonds and emerging debt but increase our cautiousness on this asset classes as liquidity could be challenged and risk reward starts to lose its attractiveness.
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Saludos empezando a animarme!
