Cobas AM: Nueva Gestora de Francisco García Paramés

 Energy investors remain extremely bearish. After a strong performance at the end of 2019, Goehring & Rozencwajg Natural Resource Market Commentary 14 energy shares have once again sold off in January 2020. Energy now makes up 3.9% of the S&P 500 – the lowest reading in at least 30 years. Apple’s market capitalization is now greater than that of the entire S&P energy sector. This reminds us of the technology bull market of the late 1990s. By 2000, Cisco System (the last cycle’s darling stock) also boasted a market capitalization that was larger than the S&P energy sector. Within twelve months, Cisco had fallen by 82% while energy stocks started an eight-year rally that saw them rise nearly four-fold. Clearly in retrospect, that was an excellent time to be an energy investor and we would not be surprised if this time is no different. 

 Energy investors are so complacent today they risk ignoring many of the underlying trends, particularly in supply. Besides the US shales and the dearth of non-OPEC ex US growth, investors are also unfazed by recent geopolitical developments. The last year has experienced a ratcheting up of Middle Eastern tensions including attacks on the Straits of Hormuz, Iranian attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, US attacks on Iranian generals in Iraq, and most recently terrorist attacks on oil pipelines in Libya. In past cycles, any of these events would have be enough to send oil prices higher. Today, all of them together have had no impact on the oil price. While we may sound like a broken record, we must reiterate how bullish we remain on energy shares. Since bottoming in February 2016 at $26 per barrel, oil prices have more than doubled on steadily improving fundamentals. Since then, the market has remained in backwardation, confirming a physical oil deficit. Despite these bullish developments, E&P shares are 15% lower today than they were when oil was $27 per barrel. We believe that investors will look back on this period as an anomaly and wonder how markets could have priced these stocks so low. We are frustrated by how long it is taking to break the investor psychology in the oil markets, but we are patient investors and remain bullish. Our models continue to tell us we are on the right track and are convinced that long-term investors will eventually be rewarded. 

Se llama 'rebote dentro de la tendencia bajista principal'...que el árbol si te deje ver el bosque,que es el fondo de todo este asunto...