El valor de mercado de todas las participadas y activos + deuda de TK es ahora mismo el equivalente a 4,9$/acción.
Si valoramos los IDRs en 140M$ (que ya es decir), el precio de la acción sería de 6,3$ que es lo que cotiza ahora mismo.
Freedom is driven by determination
HFIRHFIR
Oil Market Fundamentals: The Pullback Is Done, But A New High Will Take Time
Sep. 6, 2018 12:05 PM•USO
Summary
Oil market fundamentals are saying that the oil price pullback is over, but a new high will take time as there's still a small physical oil glut.
We have created a new index of oil market leading indicators and we hope to use that to gauge the 2-3 month trend direction of oil prices.
Global floating storage, implied global demand and imports, and Brent time spreads are all trending bullish now.
Author's note: Data in this article is accurate as of August 26, 2018, when this article was published for subscribers.
WTI and Brent finished the week up 5.38% and 4.97% respectively. The Brent-WTI spread currently stands at $6.70/bbl and the difference is expected to keep widening over the coming weeks.
Over the last 2-months, readers have been confused by the correction we saw in oil prices. First, we started off with disappointing US oil storage reports in July and into August, which was then followed up by some gut-wrenching energy equity pullbacks last month.
In our view, much of this consolidation in oil and the sell-off in energy equities were needed in order for oil and energy stocks to make new highs later this year.
The oil sell-off came as a result of the June export timing mismatch between Saudi, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, and Venezuela. Saudi, UAE, and Kuwait preemptively increased exports by almost 1 million b/d, but Iran and Venezuela exports have not fallen off just yet.
We wrote back in July that this overhang would take some time to correct itself. By the second half of August, the physical market overhang that came as a result of the June export timing mismatch should completely reverse.
And yes, we are now finally starting to see bullish physical market signals develop ranging from disappearing WAF floating storage to strengthening Brent time spreads.
Source: HFI Research.
From the chart above, you can see that following the ~1 million b/d ramp in crude exports, the big 3 have started to pull back on exports. August exports are expected to be higher month-over-month, but because of the declines we are seeing in Iran’s crude exports, total exports since May are now in deficit.
We calculate that in May, Saudi + UAE + Kuwait + Iran + Venezuela exported a total of 15.51 million b/d. In August, the 5 countries exported a total of 15.293 million b/d or 217k b/d lower than when Saudi reiterated commitment to increase supplies. See the chart below:
Source: HFI Research.
We can also observe the overall export decline in OPEC’s crude exports:
Source: HFI Research.
The data we have just presented not only tells us that the near-term physical oil glut is behind us, but it also informs us how the Saudis are thinking about the oil market. In a weekly update report titled, “Saudi Aramco's IPO, Halted, Cancelled? What To Make Of It All?” We wrote that Saudi’s policy change occurred in July when Brent fell below $75/bbl.
The drop in Saudi crude exports indicates to us that the “central bank of oil” does not have the stomach for Brent to test the low $70s. Our contributor, Pain Capital, also noted in last week’s Daily Pain that the Saudis have a fiscal breakeven between $85 to $87/bbl. This gives us reason to put the upper limit of the “Saudi Band” at $85/bbl Brent.
Source: Stockcharts.com.
Does this mean oil prices are headed for $80/bbl right away?
No, not exactly. Our analysis of the data indicates that while the weakness in oil prices is largely behind us, the firepower needed for a new breakout is not quite here yet. We do not expect Brent to test the low $70s again given the disappearing physical oil glut, but we don’t think it has the strength to breakthrough $80/bbl just yet.
We have recently created a new “leading” indicator predicated on global imports and global exports data. The way we are using this data is by using a real-time vessel tracking system and gauging what global exports and imports are on a monthly basis. We can approximate global demand by the number of barrels each country imports every month. We can also approximate global oil supplies by the number of barrels each country exports every month. This implied gauge of global oil demand and supply can help us see the oil market on a more real-time basis.
In addition, we have also started to track oil-on-water, which is a good measurement to see just how much oil is out there in the world. When oil-on-water is high without a corresponding increase in global floating storage, we know global oil demand is fine. When oil-on-water is high, but floating storage is increasing, we know global oil demand is weak.
By using these new measurement tools, we hope to create “leading indicators” of the oil market. One measurement on its own isn’t enough to gauge the trend of the market. It’s important to look at all the variables.
Global Crude Balance
Monthly
Source: HFI Research.
3-Month Moving Average
Source: HFI Research.
These two charts give a very vivid display of what’s going on in the global oil markets today. The June export timing mismatch sent the oil market into a short-term surplus of 2 million b/d. But in July and August, the surplus has reversed to a deficit of 716k b/d and 1.026 million b/d, respectively.
However, on a 3-month moving average basis, we are not completely out of the woods yet. The 3-MA is showing a small surplus of 98k b/d, which indicates to us that September global balances will need to be in the deficit again in order for storage levels to start drawing again.
If our analysis of the Saudi’s new oil policy is correct, then we expect September exports to remain low as well, which would push the oil market into a steeper deficit.
Global Balance VS OECD Stockpile
Source: HFI Research.
Global Balance VS OECD Stockpile (3-Month Moving Average)
Source: HFI Research.
These two charts indicate to us that the trend is starting to reverse from what we saw in June. As a result, we should expect to see OECD stockpile start to trend lower in the coming months.
Oil-On-Water
Source: HFI Research.
Oil-on-water is a newer metric we are starting to track. It’s becoming a much more relevant indicator given the improvement over the years on tanker tracking technology. IEA even dedicated a section on this during the latest oil market report, here’s what it said:
While it’s not a perfect measurement on its own, when used along with other data like global crude imports/exports and global floating storage, we think this is a good gauge of the short-term direction in the market. This indicator is showing that oil-on-water is starting to decrease following the June spike.
Global Floating Storage 30+ Days
Source: HFI Research.
We have found the global floating storage 30+ days data as the least noisy one. This metric only counts floating storage or vessels that have not been sold for more than 30+ days. Other metrics may include vessels that are currently on its way to ports, so they are very noisy. The 30+ days gives ample time for buyers and sellers to connect and ship the crude. If these cargoes are not sold for more than 30+ days, then it would be considered “floating storage”.
We can see in this measurement that the spike in 30+ days occurred in June or precisely when we also saw the mismatch in exports started to take place. Since June, the 30+ day floating storage has decreased from ~19 million bbls to ~14 million bbls, but there’s still quite a way to go before reaching the lows we saw this year of ~8 million bbls.
The trend, however, has been moving in the right direction, which aligns with what we are seeing with our other measurements.
Brent Two- to Three-Month Time Spread
Finally, our final measurement tool is the classic Brent time spread.
Source: Barchart.
Our head analyst, Aaron Bradley, pays very close attention to this measurement, and last week’s price action saw the 2-3-month time spread shift from contango (bearish) to backwardation (bullish).
An easy way to gauge this metric is by looking at whether the spread is positive or negative. Positive price spread indicates backwardation, which implies that the physical oil market is starting to tighten. Negative price spread indicates contango, which implies that the physical oil market is loosening.
In essence, backwardation is bullish and contango is bearish.
The spread indicates to us that the physical oil market glut is now behind us, which aligns with everything else we are seeing.
HFI Research Leading Oil Market Index
Using the 4 leading indicators, we have now created a new leading oil market index.
You can see the index breakdown above. Red indicates bearish, while green is bullish. In the box, we also applied a preliminary weighting to the figures. As you can see, the global crude net difference is still bearish given that we are still showing a surplus resulting from the June export ramp. We expect that to reverse since August balances are showing a negative 1 million b/d balance. But this trend will need to continue into September.
The other metrics are already turning bullish as the trend is towards the bull side.
Conclusion
What are the oil market fundamentals telling us?
It’s telling us that the oil price weakness that we saw over the last 2-months should be behind us, but oil prices won’t march onto a new high just yet. The global crude net difference on a 3-month moving average needs to keep trending in the deficit, which should result in OECD inventory draws. Once this metric flash green, we should expect oil prices to march towards the previous highs.
By this point, we will have to watch what the Saudis do. Will they start dumping inventories like what we saw in June or will they let Brent reach $85/bbl before doing anything?
What we do know is this, by the end of the year, Saudis will have to ramp up exports if the losses from Iran are steep. So even if Saudi decides to dump inventory, it still may not be enough for the global oil markets.
Thank you for reading this article. If you found this article insightful, please leave a "Like" below.
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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Tagged: Macro View,Commodities,Alternative Investing,Editors' Picks
Includes: The United States Oil ETF, LP (USO),OIL,UWT,UCO,DWT,SCO,BNO,DBO,DTO,USL,DNO,OLO,SZO,OLEM,WTIU,OILK,OILX,WTID,USOI,USOU,USOD,OILD,OILU,USAI
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Y los institucionales que han acudido a la AK de 10$, les han tomado el pelo ?
Se han llevado la comisión de sus clientes y toca esperar esa revalorización prometida.
La pasta la tiene el comisionistas, el riesgo el partícipe.
SIEMPRE.
Freedom is driven by determination
Joder que cosa más tremenda, el Dow sigue para arriba.
Freedom is driven by determination
Yo creo que estamos viviendo un momento histórico en todo lo relacionado las materias primas.
¿en qué sentido?
Freedom is driven by determination
Tendrás tu monitor, tu teclado, etc, que se conectará todo vía bluetooth u otro tipo de conexión inalámbrica y el teléfono hará las veces de CPU.
Obviamente no servirá para servicios especializados. Pero para las 3 chorradas de navegar por internet, ofimática etc. Además casi todo se ejecuta ya en la nube