Nos creemos superiores pero no, una rata se rie de nosotros

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Traders’ delusion with random patterns
DECEMBER 23, 2011 BY MATTHEW HAGEMANN LEAVE A COMMENT
In his book How We Decide, Jonah Lehrer wrote about a simple experiment conducted among students at Yale University. It reminded me a lot of the senseless undertakings that traders do to seek logic in random price action:
Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or the far left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food was random, but the dice were rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side 60 percent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left of the maze, which resulted in a 60 percent success rate. The rat didn’t strive for perfection. It didn’t search for a unified theory of the T-shaped maze. It just accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the option that usually gave the best outcome.
The experiment was repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, the students, with their elaborate networks of dopamine neurons, stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict; the apparent randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced that they were making progress toward identifying the underlying algorithm, they were, in actuality, outsmarted by a rat.
http://www.streetcoup.com/2011/12/traders-delusion-with-random-patterns/

Ja, ja. Muy bueno.

Pero podríamos discutir sobre la afirmación del autor de que los movimientos del precio en la bolsa responden al azar. La evidencia es tremenda de que no responden únicamente al azar.

Aguardo con interés el segundo capítulo del experimento donde la rata se convierte en trader de éxito y se hace cargo de un hedge fund. Menudo instinto.

Lo de la bolsa de la ultima semana,maquillaje de ultimos de año,nada mas.

Ese segundo capítulo del experimento nunca se hará, salvo que las ratas sean las que hagan los experimentos y los humanos, las cobayas.

Mientras tanto los que invertimos, estaremos en manos de los Traders que mueven el mercado, que sólo a largo plazo tiene algo, que no sea azar, en mi opinión.

Un saludo