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Coronavirus ¿buen momento para aportar?

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Coronavirus ¿buen momento para aportar?
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Coronavirus ¿buen momento para aportar?
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#17

Coronavirus 2020 black swan (artículo de Sequioa)

Artículo de Sequioa 

Dear Founders & CEOs,

Coronavirus is the black swan of 2020. Some of you (and some of us) have already been personally impacted by the virus. We know the stress you are under and are here to help. With lives at risk, we hope that conditions improve as quickly as possible. In the interim, we should brace ourselves for turbulence and have a prepared mindset for the scenarios that may play out.

All of you have been inundated by suggestions for precautions to take around COVID-19 to protect the health and welfare of you, your employees, and your families. Like many, we have studied the available information and would be happy to share our point of view — please let us know if that is of interest. This note is about something else: ensuring the health of your business while dealing with potential business consequences of the spreading effects of the virus.

Unfortunately, because of Sequoia’s presence in many regions around the world, we are gaining first-hand knowledge of coronavirus’ effects on global business. As with all crises, there are some businesses that stand to benefit. However, many companies in frontline countries are facing challenges as a result of the virus outbreak, including:
  • Drop in business activity. Some companies have seen their growth rates drop sharply between December and February. Several companies that were on track are now at risk of missing their Q1–2020 plans as the effects of the virus ripple wider.
  • Supply chain disruptions. The unprecedented lockdown in China is directly impacting global supply chains. Hardware, direct-to-consumer, and retailing companies may need to find alternative suppliers. Pure software companies are less exposed to supply chain disruptions, but remain at risk due to cascading economic effects.
  • Curtailment of travel and canceled meetings. Many companies have banned all “non-essential” travel and some have banned all international travel. While travel companies are directly impacted, all companies that depend on in-person meetings to conduct sales, business development, or partnership discussions are being affected.

It will take considerable time — perhaps several quarters — before we can be confident that the virus has been contained. It will take even longer for the global economy to recover its footing. Some of you may experience softening demand; some of you may face supply challenges. While The Fed and other central banks can cut interest rates, monetary policy may prove a blunt tool in alleviating the economic ramifications of a global health crisis.

We suggest you question every assumption about your business, including:
  1. Cash runway. Do you really have as much runway as you think? Could you withstand a few poor quarters if the economy sputters? Have you made contingency plans? Where could you trim expenses without fundamentally hurting the business? Ask these questions now to avoid potentially painful future consequences.
  2. Fundraising. Private financings could soften significantly, as happened in 2001 and 2009. What would you do if fundraising on attractive terms proves difficult in 2020 and 2021? Could you turn a challenging situation into an opportunity to set yourself up for enduring success? Many of the most iconic companies were forged and shaped during difficult times. We partnered with Cisco shortly after Black Monday in 1987. Google and PayPal soldiered through the aftermath of the dot-com bust. More recently, Airbnb, Square, and Stripe were founded in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis. Constraints focus the mind and provide fertile ground for creativity.
  3. Sales forecasts. Even if you don’t see any direct or immediate exposure for your company, anticipate that your customers may revise their spending habits. Deals that seemed certain may not close. The key is to not be caught flat-footed.
  4. Marketing. With softening sales, you might find that your customer lifetime values have declined, in turn suggesting the need to rein in customer acquisition spending to maintain consistent returns on marketing spending. With greater economic and fundraising uncertainty, you might even want to consider raising the bar on ROI for marketing spend.
  5. Headcount. Given all of the above stress points on your finances, this might be a time to evaluate critically whether you can do more with less and raise productivity.
  6. Capital spending. Until you have charted a course to financial independence, examine whether your capital spending plans are sensible in a more uncertain environment. Perhaps there is no reason to change plans and, for all you know, changing circumstances may even present opportunities to accelerate. But these are decisions that should be deliberate.

Having weathered every business downturn for nearly fifty years, we’ve learned an important lesson — nobody ever regrets making fast and decisive adjustments to changing circumstances. In downturns, revenue and cash levels always fall faster than expenses. In some ways, business mirrors biology. As Darwin surmised, those who survive “are not the strongest or the most intelligent, but the most adaptable to change.”

A distinctive feature of enduring companies is the way their leaders react to moments like these. Your employees are all aware of COVID-19 and are wondering how you will react and what it means for them. False optimism can easily lead you astray and prevent you from making contingency plans or taking bold action. Avoid this trap by being clinically realistic and acting decisively as circumstances change. Demonstrate the leadership your team needs during this stressful time.

Here is some perspective from our partner Alfred Lin, who lived through another black swan moment as an operating executive:

“I was serving as the COO/CFO of Zappos when I was summoned to Sequoia’s office for the infamous
R.I.P. Good Times presentation in 2008, prior to the financial crisis. We didn’t know then, just like we don’t know now, how long or how sharp or shallow of a downturn we will face. What I can confirm is that the presentation made our team and our business stronger. Zappos emerged from the financial crisis ready to seize on opportunities after our competitors had been battered and bruised.”

Stay healthy, keep your company healthy, and put a dent in the world.
#18

Re: Coronavirus ¿buen momento para aportar?

Odinn
¿Para qué sirve que los banqueros centrales inflacionen con el virus si lo que hay es una caida de la producción en unidades fisicas? No entiendo la economía...
3 recomendaciones
#19

Re: Coronavirus ¿buen momento para aportar?

Trankor

Hay un hueco de unos 500 puntos (teniendo en cuenta que los futuros para el SP indican apertura en -3%) respecto a mínimos de 2018 que no me extrañaría que llegáramos a tocar 
RSI ,aún no se ve tan mal,pero..
#21

Re: Coronavirus ¿buen momento para aportar?

juantor
Yo el próximo día 10 realizaré mi aportación mensual periódica.  Se que es difícil, pero hay que seguir con el plan elaborado en su día. Ante todo disciplina,  trances como el actual lo superaremos y sobre todo nos hará fuertes para seguir la ruta marcada.

#22

Re: Coronavirus ¿buen momento para aportar?

Trankor
 Escenario de anuncio de pre-recesión parece ser esto
Anda que ver cómo China controla el virus a pesar de ser un continente y ver cómo en la minúscula Italia se propaga por todo el pais, es solo un detalle de esta europa caótica, pero caótica en todo y para cualquier lado que se mire
Lagarde ya tenía anunciado que iba a preguntar a los ciudadanos no sé qué sobre politicas monetarias...se habrá  visto  semejante estupidez!!! que me recuerda a  otra de Cameron  preguntando sobre el brexi y la que lio 
No os eligen para consultar sino para gobernar y si no sabéis para casa
3 recomendaciones
#23

Re: Coronavirus ¿buen momento para aportar?

Trankor
Pues aquello del día 6 se cumple, estamos casi tocando ya mínimos de 2018
Bueno, vamos a ver ahora si se hace algo de suelo....
Pero el gráfico de caída es muy diferente.
En este caso es brutal, en picado, a plomo
#24

Re: Coronavirus ¿buen momento para aportar?

Manucr
No sabes nunca si es buen momento para aportar. Si el sistema quiebra, o queda caída adicional, no es buen momento, sino, es buen momento. No hagas caso a nadie, no busques seguridad en la opinión de nadie, nadie tiene ni idea, sigue tu instinto!!
1 recomendaciones
#25

Re: Coronavirus ¿buen momento para aportar?

Trankor
Para que el SP500 vuelva a niveles de comienzo de febrero sería necesario una subida de 45% aproximadamente
#26

Reflexión de Seth Klarman para momentos de crisis

Hoy he encontrado la siguiente reflexión para un mercado en crisis de Seth Klarman: 
I’ve thought a lot about that. Their focus would probably be on not worrying about where something trades tomorrow or next week. You need to worry about where the company and the stock will be in three to five years. If you can buy something today with little chance of permanent impairment and a high likelihood that you’ll double your money over the next five years, you should go ahead and do it.

As always, they’d argue to be careful and make very sure nothing terminates your upside option, which would suggest staying away from highly leveraged situations. They’d probably tread very lightly with financials, although not ignore them, because some companies with clean books of business and great management are likely to take advantage of the lending environment today.

As Graham, Dodd and Buffett have all said, you should always remember that you don’t have to swing at every pitch. You can wait for opportunities that fit your criteria and if you don’t find them, patiently wait. Deciding not to panic is still a decision.
 
#27

Re: Reflexión de Seth Klarman para momentos de crisis

Thrupos
Por si te sirve de algo, no se si es momento de aportar o no y difícilmente alguien tenga la respuesta correcta.

Yo he comenzado a aportar, por una simple regla de tres he dividido toda la liquidez que tengo disponible entre 60 y voy a aportar humildes cantidades a diario durante los próximos 2 meses, veremos como sale la jugada
1 recomendaciones
#29

Re: Coronavirus ¿buen momento para aportar?

Serranoclaudia
-yo lo veo como una gran posibilidad de invertir en compañias devaluadas, pero esto considerando para una inversion a medio plazo
2 recomendaciones
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