Ya te echaba de menos, Omega! Ya me comentaste alguna vez que seguías a Dreman. Todos los inversores en valor tenemos algo de contrarios. Yo tb lo sigo.

Muchas gracias por el artículo. NO lo había leido. Me alegra ver que coincido con un grande. Pero por encima de $34, estando las cosas como están, prefiero no entrar.

Un abrazo Omega!!!

Hola,

Ahí abajo os incluyo unos comentarios interesantes sobre Home Depot de David Dreman,

The Omega Man


" First, it's impossible to get a good grip on how far the housing slump will go. The optimists state the decline in new home sales is almost over and home construction will bounce back vigorously both next year and in 2008. That's a hard story to buy because of the strong headwinds that await this important industry. Even if new construction is cut back fairly sharply, there is still a large inventory of new units to work off. With diving house sales, stocks of home builders look cheap today. However, proceed with caution. My fellow columnist Laszlo Birinyi finds several a buy, despite weakening earnings. I'd wait a bit.

Many builders have bought call options on new land. They would argue that they are thus protected if land prices drop because they do not own the land. That's true only up to a point. Call options on land are not free. A 12- to 18-month option to buy land can cost as much as 15% of the property's value. Let that option lapse and you eventually have a hit to earnings for the premium paid.

Investors are also concerned by the collateral damage to the sales of home improvement retailers such as Home Depot (nyse: HD - news - people ) and Lowe's (nyse: LOW - news - people ) if home building continues to slip. In addition, the drop in the price of lumber, copper and scores of other building materials have hurt these cyclical industries, resulting in rising unemployment.

To date, jobless numbers haven't worsened as construction workers have moved over to commercial and other types of building where demand continues to be healthy. While the downturn in home building can still dampen increases in the gross domestic product, it should not send the economy into a tailspin.

Will the slump in housing and commodity prices pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates anytime soon? Probably not. The Fed is likely to stay on the sidelines for some time before cutting rates, which means that the yields on Treasurys are too low for current conditions. The risk here is what happens if oil, now trending downward, reverses and socks us with a huge price spike--whether through a terrorist action or a geopolitical crisis. The resulting surge in inflation would put the Fed in a box.

On the bullish side, corporate earnings continue to expand briskly and should be up better than 15% this year, and another 10% in 2007. Rapidly rising earnings since 2002 have cut the price/earnings multiple of the S&P to a little over 15 times, slightly below the average P/E over the last 100 years. The important stock indexes have not been so cheap on strong underlying earnings growth and other solid fundamentals since the mid-1990s. That is why, despite qualms about the fallout from housing, we should see a good market ahead. I would continue to buy large-company stocks available at low multiples and high yields.

Here are several ideas to look at now:

Housing will come back eventually. Home-builder stocks may be bear traps for a while. But a safer strategy is to buy home improvement stocks. They are near their 12-month lows, are still growing at low double-digit rates, and are not entirely dependent on new home construction for their sales. Home Depot (36, HD ) and Lowe's (31, LOW )both present good value. Home Depot trades at a P/E of 12, with a 10% growth rate and 1.7% yield, while Lowe's trades at a P/E of 15 with a 12% to 15% growth rate and a yield of 0.7%.

Este es el link:
http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2006/1127/212.html?partner=yahoomag