Ajustes de fin de año

Interesantes comentarios del mítico Bill Miller sobre petróleo. Un abrazo y feliz año nuevo, Martin

One reason Miller has lagged the market is a lack of exposure to the energy sector, which has been one of the better performers in 2006 thanks to a rise in oil prices. The S&P Energy index has gained 23 percent this year and makes up about 10 percent of the S&P 500's total market capitalization.

Speaking at a Legg Mason investment conference in New York earlier this month, Miller conceded that he was wrong on energy stocks. He said he thought about buying some in 2003 but felt that he would be chasing performance and decided to avoid them.

However, he added that he still is wary of oil stocks. Even though he said many energy stocks are reasonably valued, he thinks the price of oil will probably fall slightly in 2007. And oil stocks tend to move in tandem with oil prices, he noted.

Miller, despite having the word "value" in his fund's name, also has not been afraid to invest in stocks with higher growth potential that many conventional value managers would find to be too expensive.

He also tends to make concentrated bets on just a handful of stocks. According to Morningstar, Miller only owns 41 stocks in his fund, and nearly 45 percent of the fund's assets are invested in his ten largest holdings.

As such, big bets on several Internet companies have not panned out for Miller this year.

A trio of high-profile Internet stocks, Amazon.com (Charts), eBay (Charts) and Yahoo! (Charts), have all fared poorly this year. Amazon, Miller's ninth-largest holding, is down 15 percent. EBay and Yahoo, Miller's 16th- and 17th-largest holdings, are down 30 percent and 35 percent respectively this year.

Miller also owns Google (Charts), though (it is his seventh-largest holding), and that stock has gained 11.5 percent this year.
Miller talks about the streak and the market

But Miller said at the Legg Mason conference that Yahoo is now one of the most attractive stocks in his fund. He said Wall Street is underestimating how much Yahoo's new search technology for advertisers will add to the company's earnings and that the stock, currently trading at about $25.50, could be worth a price in the mid $40s.

Three health insurers have also dragged down the returns of Legg Mason Value Trust this year. Miller owns UnitedHealth, Aetna and Health Net. UnitedHealth, Miller's fifth-largest holding, is down 14 percent. Aetna (Charts) and Health Net (Charts), Miller's 10th-largest and 21st-largest holdings, have fallen more than 5 percent.

UnitedHealth (Charts) has been caught up in the options backdating scandal -- manipulating the dates of options grants to boost their value -- that has plagued many companies this year. The company's CEO stepped down in October as a result of options backdating problems.

But Miller said earlier this month that he thought insurers would bounce back next year since healthcare spending as a percentage of the overall economy is increasing, and because the stocks are all very cheap, trading between 13 and 16 times 2007 earnings estimates.

He also expressed optimism that his fund, and the broader market for that matter, would do well in 2007.
Superstar funds lag, investors bail

Miller said that with the economy slowing, the Federal Reserve probably will not need to raise rates any further. He said that would be good news for stocks, particularly large-cap stocks that have underperformed in recent years.

Specifically, Miller said that large tech companies like IBM, Dell, Microsoft and Cisco Systems have the potential to beat the market next year.

"Broadly speaking, tech is where most people are underweight. So it is a good place to be," he said.

With Miller's streak coming to a close, investors may be wondering who the next Bill Miller will be. Well, there is no clear answer.

The fund with the second longest streak of beating the market, the Quaker Strategic Growth fund, is actually down 5.3 percent through December 28. That fund, run by Manu Daftary, had beaten the S&P 500 eight years in a row.

But several funds riding seven year winning streaks are on track to beat the market this year.

Pues ya tenemos trabajo xa las vacaciones (las mías empiezan mañana). Muchas gracias Fernando! a ver si al final vamos a tener petroleras limpias y todo ;) GRACIAS!

Sólo he encontrado esto en las noticias de XOM:

Exxon sees global energy demand up 1.6 pct a year

Parece que IIIIIDHIIIII tiene razón en que lo hicieron sin ruido...

No obstante, metiendo en Google "EXXONMOBIL view energy 2030", sale el informe en cuestión. Se encuentra en este PDF de 26 páginas.

Parece que tenemos trabajo...

s2

Hola Fernando! una pregunta: conoces la fuente del Informe de Exxon que comentaba iiiiidhiiiii en el foro?

http://servicios.invertia.com/foros/read.asp?idMen=1008540254&idtel=FR011FINANZA

estas cosas me gustan. sobre todo, xq siempre pensé que los que más deben invertir (en secreto) buscando energías alternativas son petroleras como XOM y COP (con su tamaño, poder y recursos). este tipode informes hacen que petroleras potentes de primera fila mundial (XOM, COP, CVX, BP...) me puedan gustar más. pero preferiría ir a la fuente original del informe, si la sabes.

Un saludo y gracias!

Hola Fernando.

Sabía que hacienda utilizaba el criterio FIFO, pero siempre pensé que cada cartera era independiente, de hecho estuve a punto de abrir otra cuenta de valores en mi entidad habitual, una para ir invertiendo a largo,largo plazo y otra para ir comprando y vendiendo en el C/P y M/P.

Nunca te acostarás sin saber una cosa más

Saludos y Feliz Año Nuevo

Hacienda sigue el criterio "First In, First Out" (FIFO). O dicho de otra manera, para ellos siempre vendes primero las más antiguas...

Incluso si tienes un paquete de 100 TEF compradas en R4 hace un año, y otras 100 TEF compradas en otro broker (ING) hace un mes, si tú vendes las de ING de hace un mes, hacienda seguirá entendiendo que vendes las más antiguas. Claro que si son 100, si lo pones al revés no te van a enviar una paralela por eso; pero si fueran 100.000, seguro que sí.

¿Y por qué? Pues porque normalmente, las más antiguas son las que acumulan mayores plusvalías, por lo que el criterio FIFO suele favorecer a Hacienda. Sin embargo, como en mi caso concreto es justo al revés, es una situación ideal para aligerarme sin pasar por caja...

s2

Hola Fernando,

Una duda técnica, ¿Como sabe hacienda cuales estas vendiendo? es decir, yo pensaba que la promediar se tomaba valor de referencia el valor promedio y no el valor de cada compra.