Seguimiento de GrafTech International (EAF)

Sinceramente pienso que esa empresa fue muy inflada por la publicidad que a mi me convenció y por el tirón que supone ese nuevo material, en su momento parecía estar todo en orden pero no ha resultado bien.

Tengo entendido que a finales de mes hay un consejo de administración pero no se nada de la evolución comercial de la empresa.

Si lo mantengo es porque mi idea de inversión es que como todo en la vida, lo que no te mata tarde o temprano te hace más fuerte.

Gracias Yotrader , te pego info de la empresa

Las acciones de GrafTech Internacional caer por debajo Anterior 52 semanas
Publicado el Mar, 10/07/2014 - 14:31
Por Mallory Piedra

GrafTech Internacional (NYSE: GTI) cotizaba hoy a un nuevo mínimo de 52 semanas de $ 4.12. En lo que va de hoy aproximadamente 1,7 millones de acciones que se han intercambiado, en comparación con un volumen promedio de 30 días de 2,3 millones de acciones.

Durante el año pasado, GrafTech Internationalhas negocia en un rango de $ 4.12 a $ 13.01 y están ahora en $ 4.20. Los promedios móviles de 200 días y 50 días han pasado del 1% inferior y 4,03% menor durante la semana pasada, respectivamente.

Existe un potencial de subida del 94,4% para GrafTech Internacional, basado en un nivel actual de $ 4.20 y promedio de precio objetivo de consenso de los analistas de 8,17 dólares. La acción debería encontrar resistencia inicial en sus 50 días de media móvil (MA) de $ 7.74 y más resistencia en su promedio móvil de 200 días de 9,89 dólares.

GrafTech International Ltd. fabrica y ofrece grafito natural y sintético y productos y servicios basados ​​en carbono. La compañía ofrece soluciones de energía a los clientes en todo el mundo que participan en la fabricación de acero, aluminio, silicio metal, productos de automoción y electrónica. Productos de GrafTech incluyen electrodos de grafito, electrodos de carbono y grafito flexible.

Por Mallory Piedra
[email protected]

 
GrafTech International (EAF) – Global crude steel production (ex-China) was down ~2% in 2019 and customers had an excess supply of graphite electrodes. As a result, net sales, sales volumes, production, and free cash flow in 2019 were all slightly down compared to the previous year. While contract prices remained at ~$9,900 in 2019, there was a 25% decline in spot prices. Management expects spot prices to decline further in 2020. In addition to reduced global steel demand, market participants are concerned about the viability of Graftech’s long-term agreements (LTAs) and spot prices. Spot prices have declined in Q1 2020 and the downward trend is likely to continue given the current global environment. 3 However, EAF generates most of its revenues from the LTAs. For example, 80% of sales in Q4 2019 were from existing contracts. 
Thus, EAF is better positioned than its competitors when spot prices are down drastically. With the LTAs, the company has locked in prices with its customers. Those contracts also provide some stability and earnings visibility over the next three years. Understandably, the take-or-pay contracts themselves are a concern. Although management hasn’t provided much detail, the Street is concerned that customers are trying to renegotiate their agreements. Customers might also be looking to get out of those contracts entirely since many companies are experiencing financial difficulty and the risk of insolvency at the moment. According to management on the most recent conference call, a solution they have offered to customers is an extension of their current contracts. Purportedly, major terms such as pricing have not been materially altered. Going forward, we will monitor the situation with Graftech’s customers and their LTAs. 

At the moment, we aren’t too concerned yet. As with most companies in the current environment, there is a lot of uncertainty. However, we believe Graftech is well-positioned to handle this difficult environment. Not only is Graftech the only company in the industry that employs LTAs, but they also produce ~70% of the required needle coke through Seadrift, their subsidiary. Graftech’s competitors have to buy all of their needle coke on the spot market, thus creating greater variability in input costs. Given its vertical integration with needle coke, Graftech provides more earnings visibility and stability than its competitors. We exited the position at an average price of $9.75 per share in February due to negative momentum. Since then, we have reinitiated an ~8% position in EAF at an average price of $7.48 per share. We are looking to increase our position if we are able to average down.