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Farmas USA

134K respuestas
Farmas USA
80 suscriptores
Farmas USA
15.414 / 16.884

Re: Farmas USA

Jajaja, muchas gracias.

KRYS es bastante decente, sí. Pero están algo de capa caída. Creo que tienen un juicio por patente (no sé cuándo) pero es mucho menos importante que el de AMRN. Mañana les vuelvo a echar un ojo y te comento si veo algo raro o si tienen algún catalizador cercano.

Re: Farmas USA

VBIV Top 5 en Russell 2000 de mejores retornos desde 1 enero 2020


Re: Farmas USA

Llevo el 4º valor, OSTK. Tema criptomoneda.
Lo que no dice esa lista es lo que nos tuvimos que comer por el camino, 2,5, ni que ha cambiado de mercado y hoy es OSTK1. Esperando que de salida, por precio lo haría porque lo están sujetando, aún le falta tiempo, enero, ahí es nada. Como mucho si no se desploma en dos meses deberían cerrarse, la más favorable antes.

Si te sientas en la mesa y no descubres al "primo" es que lo eres tú.


Re: Farmas USA

Yo estoy de esas en FATE y BEAM, creo q lo sabéis.
Que acaba de descubrir AHORA MRNA?? Yo ya fuera
Y con BEAM hay q tener cuidado temporalmente x fin del quiet period. Yo puede q esté in & out cuando toque 


Re: Farmas USA

No, MRNA la empezó a seguir y recomendar hace bastante, mucho antes del COVID. Este es su top 10 de mejores empresas, independientemente de que estén muy sobrevaloradas. De hecho, el precio objetivo que tiene para MRNA es de unos $30...

Re: Farmas USA

Ah ok no es es un post actualizado 
ARGX Tb la he llevado y volveré, tb me gusta 

Re: Farmas USA

KRYS $41.23

No tiene ningún catalizador grande cerca aparte de inicios de algunos estudios. Muchísima caja, quemado actual de 22M (pero lo aumentarán sin duda ya que quieren iniciar muchos estudios). Tenían 186M en el último 10Q pero hicieron una dilución de 125M a $55 justo después, a mitad de mayo.

En palabras de b2k:

KRYS' problem is that it has no events coming up any time soon. Their main trial is just starting phase 3 which will take a long time to complete. They are working on some early stage stuff. I think the Cystic Fibrosis data will be a game changer when it comes. This could make KRYS worth 2x or even 3x what it is worth today. That data might be early data later this year. It is just in one of those dead zones for data. That leaves investors to get bored and go elsewhere looking for excitement. I am holding for the long term. Its cheap just off its late stage EB indication. Its a free play on an upset in Cystic Fibrosis. I think it could be.

The fundamentals are strong for buying KRYS from an investor standpoint. Its very cheap. It has a late stage trial starting soon. Maybe some worry the Phase 3 will have delays because of Covid. I thought they said they could do this therapy in home with a nurse. That is really good for a gene therapy. They can also do follow ups in home and online from what I understand. This company has huge value in a market that is vastly overvalued. Then you get the bonus option that their early pipeline could hit pay dirt. I was quietly sitting out this discussion as I wanted to buy cheaper shares lol. I didn't get my bid. This is a classic case of the chart does not represent the fundamentals at this moment. Amazing company, but a bad chart. I have my bids waiting. Eventually the fundamentals will take over and It will go back to $70 or higher.

Antes de la última actualización, era su posición 9 de sus 10 "ideas":

9. KRYS - This company got on my radar after data last October's Gene and Cell therapy meeting. I had been in and out of it as I had concerns over the management being family. Nothing wrong with that as long as all things are all well. I think the science is outstanding. They use a Herpes virus to deliver a gene therapy with a topical ointment to skin cells. This can be applied at any doctors office or my a skilled home nurse. This has very promising data in dystrophic EB. It should be going into a pivotal trial soon. They are now expanding this technology into a host of genetic skin diseases like Netherton Syndrome, TGM1 deficiency, and junctional EB. They are also exploring a partnership for cosmetic uses. This science could change the way we treat skin disorders. It could also be carried over into things like Psoriasis.


Del último 10Q:
Next milestones: 
  • Commence pivotal Phase 3 study on B-VEC for the treatment of dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa and organize commercial plans for potential future global launch of B-VEC.
  • Advance Phase 1/2 study to include pediatric patients on KB105 for the treatment of ARCI, following safety review by the FDA.
  • Initiate Phase 1 clinical safety and efficacy study on KB301 for an aesthetic indication.
  • Issuance of a new U.S. patent covering compositions of matter and methods of cosmetic use related to our product candidate KB301 after positive decision rendered by the US Patent & Trademark Office for U.S. Pat. App. No. 16/395,896, entitled “Recombinant Nucleic Acids Encoding Cosmetic Protein(s) for Aesthetic Applications.”
  • Work to file an IND for KB104 for the treatment of Netherton Syndrome.
  • Continue pre-clinical efforts on KB407 for an anticipated IND filing in 2021.

De su presentación más reciente del 2Q:

  • Initiation of Phase 1 clinical study in KB104 to treat Netherton syndrome and KB407 to treat cystic fibrosis in 1H 2021
  • Cash position of ~ $300M provides runway to 2H 2022
  • Inside ownership ~ 27% following recent secondary financing
  • One GMP facility operational with second anticipated to be ready in 1H 2022
  • Building out Global Commercial Team for anticipated launch of pipeline products in 2022 

Análisis de b2k de principio de mayo (no actualizado con última dilución):

KRYS maintains 4.57 stars

Just minor tweaks for share count and valuations.
 First Recommended: December 27, 2018 @ $20.00

1. Management - Krish Krishnan - 4.6 Stars
- Integrity - 5 Stars
- Communicator - 4 Stars
- Financial Manager - 5 Stars
- Regulatory Affairs - 5 Stars
- Good Decision Making - 4 Stars

2. Science - 4.25 Stars
- Breakthrough Therapies - 4 Stars (1 RMAT Designation)
- Diversified Pipeline - 5 Stars (5 drugs)
- Stage of Development - 3 Stars (Phase 2)
- Clinical Success - 5 Stars (No failure)

3. Potential - 5 stars (+1018% over 10 years = 101% annual)
KB103 - $481 million
KB104 - $475 million
KB105 - $175 million
Total Peak Sales = $1.13 billion * 8 P/S = $9 billion Market Cap peak
@ 17,385,809 shares outstanding = $517.66

4. Valuation – 5 Stars (Very Cheap)
BVec - $481 million * 2 for Phase 2 data = $962 million value
KB104 - $475 million * 10% for preclinic = $47.5 million value
KB105 - $175 million * 10% for preclinic = $17.5 million value
Cash = $186 million
Total Value = $1.21 billion @ 17,385,809 shares outstanding = $69.59

5. Financials - 4 stars (Not Profitable Yet)
Cash = $186 million
Cash Burn = $22 million per year
More than 2 years of cash

Total Ranking: 4.57 stars

Después del 10Q el in depth (no actualizado con última dilución):

Got some good numbers for this Cystic Fibrosis indication. Its just preclincal, but it affect the long term potential and my valuation.
I have been in KRYS for nearly 2 years now. At first, I was a bit concerned about having a management team that is husband and wife. They have done a very good job. I think Krish Krishnan is a great CEO. He dose a good job speaking and knows the science well.


B-Vec @ $275,000 price
Estimated that there are about 25,000 EB patients in the US
Estimated that 25% are Dystrophic EB = 6,250
Estimated to be only about 3,500 diagnosed in the US
Give them 50% market share = $481 million

KB105 @ $350,000 price
Estimated to be about 1,000 TGM1-deficient ARCI patients in the US
50% market share = $175 million

KB104 @ $275,000 price
Estimated about 3,000 Netherton Syndrome patients in the US
Give them 50% market share = $412 million

The aesthetic skin conditions programs are in early stage of development. I know they want to partner this program. I think it could be worth well over a billion in sales, but I won't value it until we know what they are targeting specifically.

KB407 @ $250,000 price
Estimated 30,000 Cystic Fibrosis patients in the US
Give then 15% market share = $1.125 billion

They have no partners so far.

BVec - $481 million * 2 for Phase 2 data = $962 million value
KB104 - $475 million * 10% for preclinic = $47.5 million value
KB105 - $175 million * 10% for preclinic = $17.5 million value
KB301 - ?
KB407 - $1.125 billion * 10% for preclinic = $112 million value

Cash = $186 million
Total Value = $1.325 billion @ 17,385,809 shares outstanding = $76.21 


El problema de patentes que comenté:


The patent dispute that KRYS is involved in, is about who owns the IP. The worst case outcome here is that KRYS has to pay the other party a license fee and or royalty. If KRYS ends up with a commercially successful product, they will still make money and reward shareholders. The other party doesn't seem to be progressing their own therapy, (at least nothing came up for PERIPHAGEN on clinicaltrails.gov) so I think it is in their interest to agree to a license fee / royalty so they can monetise their IP if they win the trial. So I'm not too concerned about this as it seems fundamentally different to the Amarin situation. 

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