¿Continuarán las recompras de acciones y el pago de dividendos? Necesidad de fortalecer balances pero si la Reserva Federal compra toda la renta fija, ¿emitirán las empresas a tipos cero y se recomprarán acciones?
¿Como afectan la pandemia a los diferentes sectores? ¿Dónde están las trampas de valor?
¿Mayor prima de riesgo? ¿Importan los tipos de interés si no hay alternativa de inversión? Damoradan
- evenue Change & Operating Margin in 2020: These are the inputs that will reflect the effects of the global economic shut down on your company's revenues and operating margin in the next 12 months. For companies close to the centre of the viral storm (travel-related companies, people-intensive businesses and producers of discretionary products), the revenue decline this year will be large and they will almost certainly lose money.
- Expected Revenue Growth in 2021-2025 and Target Operating Margin: If you feel drained from having to estimate the 2020 number, I don't blame you, but the more forward-looking part of this valuation is estimating how your company will fare in the post-virus economy (assuming it does not fail). For some companies, like cruise liners, the answers will be depressing, because the sights of large cruise ships stranded on the high seas, and acting as Petri dishes for spreading diseases will linger, but other companies will find themselves in a stronger position in the post-viral economy, partly because of their product offerings but also because of their financial strengths. In the tales told about Amazon, people often forget how much its current stature and success is due to the dot com bust (not the boom) of 2001, which wiped out their online competitors and handicapped their brick-and-mortar competitors.
- Failure probability and consequences: In good times and when valuing mature companies, we become lazy and forget that conventional valuation approaches, where you project cash flows as far as the eye can see and beyond, and discount them back at a risk adjusted discount rate, are designed for going concerns. These are not good times, and even mature companies are facing threats to survival. It is almost impossible to adjust for this concern in discount rates and it is therefore imperative that you make judgments about the likelihood that your company will not make it, and this probability will be higher for smaller companies, young companies and more indebted companies. Even with large companies that may be recipients of bail outs, because they are too big to fail, your equity may go to zero, if that is one of the conditions of the bailout (as was the case in the 2009 GM bailout).
I have updated the equity risk premiums to reflect the market convulsions over the last few weeks, as well as default spreads for debt, and suffice to say that there has been a surge in the price of risk.
¿Replicará el comportamiento bursátil la recuperación por sectores?