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Coronavirus: Oportunidades de inversión tras las pandemias

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Opinión de Fidelity sobre el impacto del coronavirus

Carta de Jim Howell
 
The Markets 
For the year through February 12, the S&P 500 is up 4.8%; the Wilshire 5000—the broadest measure of our domestic market, is up 4.8%; the EAFE index—my preferred broad measure of international markets, is up 0.4%; and the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index—my go-to broad measure of U.S. investment-grade bonds, is up 1.8%. 
Our Portfolios 
Over the same time period, my rankings-based, quantitative Global Quant Growth portfolio is up 2.2%, and my Global Quant Income portfolio is up 1.2%. My Growth portfolio is up 3.7%, my Growth & Income portfolio is up 2.0% and my Income portfolio is up 1.9%. Annuity Growth is up 4.6%, and Annuity Growth & Income is up 3.7%. 
Market Watch 
Fears of the scope, scale, infection and mortality rate of COVID-19 (the nomenclature for the coronavirus; Coronavirus Disease 2019) have shifted to a globally generalized hope of and for containment. 
My investment view:
Hope is not an investment discipline. And to be clear, I do not trust the data coming from China with regard to the human and economic toll and their distinct and collective potential toll on global growth. 
Fed Chair Powell had this to say this week in his scheduled testimony to the House: “We are closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which could lead to disruptions in China that spill over to the rest of the global economy.” Ditto. 
Some of the questions I’ve been thinking about: Could COVID-19 create enough of a supply disruption globally to incite inflation (with too many dollars chasing too few goods)? Could COVID-19 create enough of a supply disruption globally to disrupt earnings? Could Phase-One U.S.-China trade deal be offset by COVID-19? Could one, more or all such factors serve to create opportunistic buying opportunities with a greater magnitude of gains relative to any COVID-19 losses; factor losses serving like downward pressure on a fundamental springboard? 
Of course, I am seeing more opportunities thanks to the known risks than risks trumping more opportunities. However, that could change—in an instant. Overall: My fundamental model portfolios remain defensively positioned. Meantime, I’m staying focused on the facts I know—not the headlines most fear. 

This week, I saw the following: Small business confidence remains elevated, job openings reflect a positive employment outlook, household debt reflects consumers who are spending within reasonable bounds of income and savings and inflation remains low (meaning purchasing power of each dollar earned goes further). 

Tomorrow: Consumer sentiment and retail sales (January) where there is often a decrease relative to the prior holiday spending months as consumers pay debt down through April—often misread by pundits as the consumer having hit a spending wall. 


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Luis Angel Hernandez
Rankiano desde hace alrededor de 3 años
Certificado MFIA. Graduado en ADE-Derecho por la Universidad de Valencia. Experto Universitario en Mercados Financieros por ADEIT.
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