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Walt Disney (DIS)
Abro este nuevo hilo (me sorprende que aún no existiera), para mí, el de una de las mejores compañías no solo de USA si no también del mundo, con uno de los MOAT, más fuerte que conozco...cada nueva película abre una nueva división (súper franquicias) de ventas insuperables, y para ejemplo el éxito Mundial de Frozen: http://www.eleconomista.es/espana/noticias/6355745/12/14/Frozen-lidera-el-ranking-de-juguetes-mas-vendidos-un-ano-despues-de-su-estreno.html http://www.gurusblog.com/archives/frozen-disney/16/05/2014/ Y a todo esto hay que sumar que ahora tienen los derechos de LucasFilm, con una nueva trilogía de STAR WARS preparada para dar comienzo en 2015, a esto hay que añadirle Marvel, y Pixar y eso sin contar sus innumerables parques de atracciones:
Según Morningstar esta en su precio, a fair value, a 95$, pero creo que vale mucho más... http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/dis/s?t=DIS http://disney.com/ Os dejo un análisis premiun de MORN, para los que le interese: Investment Thesis 08/05/2014 While Disney is a media conglomerate, we view the company as two distinct yet complementary businesses: media networks, which include ESPN and ABC, and Disney-branded businesses, including parks, filmed entertainment, and consumer products. The crown jewel of Disney's media networks segment is ESPN. It dominates domestic sports television with its 24-hour programming on ESPN, ESPN2, and its growing sister networks. ESPN has exclusive rights within both NFL and college football, the premier sports programming rights in the United States. ESPN profits from the highest affiliate fees per subscriber of any cable channel, and generates revenue from advertisers interested in reaching adult males ages 18-49, a key advertising demographic that watches less scripted television than other groups. This dual income stream is a significant advantage not shared by the broadcast networks, which rely primarily on ad revenue. The Disney Channel also benefits from attractive economics, as its programming consists of internally generated hits with Disney's vast library of feature films and animated characters. Disney's other components rely on the world-class Disney brand, sought after by children and trusted by parents. Over the past decade, Disney has demonstrated its ability to monetize its characters and franchises across multiple platforms--movies, home video sales, merchandising, and theme parks. The stable of animated franchises will continue to grow as more popular movies get released by the animated studio and Pixar, which has already generated hits such as "Toy Story," "Cars," and most recently, "Frozen." Similar to the animated franchises, Disney arranged the Marvel universe to create a series of interconnected films and product tie-ins. With the acquisition of Lucasfilm, Disney appears to be positioning the Star Wars franchise in the same manner. Disney's theme parks and resorts are almost impossible to replicate, especially considering the tie-ins with its other business lines. Economic Moat 08/05/2014 Disney's economic moat is wide. Both its media networks segment and its collection of Disney-branded businesses have demonstrated strong pricing power through the past few years. The ESPN network is the dominant player in U.S. sports entertainment. Its position and brand strength empower it to charge the highest subscriber fees of any cable network, which in turn generate sustainable profits. ESPN uses these profits to reinforce its position by acquiring long-term sports programming rights, including the NFL, the NBA, and college football and basketball. The ESPN brand has been extended to create sister channels (ESPN2, ESPN Classic, and SEC Network) and the pre-eminent sports news website (ESPN.com). The media network component also includes the Disney Channel, one of two dominant cable networks for children, which allows Disney to introduce and extend its strong IP and content portfolio. ABC, one of the four major broadcast networks, offers an outlet to reach almost all 116 million households in the United States. While network viewership has declined over the past decade, it still outpaces cable ratings, and provides advertisers with one of the only remaining avenues for reaching a mass audience. Disney has mastered the process of monetizing its world-renowned characters and franchises across multiple platforms. The company has moved beyond the historical view of a brand that children recognize, and that parents trust, by acquiring and creating new franchises and intellectual property. Recent success with the Pixar and Marvel franchises has helped to create new opportunities with adults that may have previously outgrown their attraction to the company's traditional characters. The recent acquisition of Lucasfilm added another avenue to remain engaged with children and adults. Disney uses the success of its filmed entertainment not only to drive DVD sales, but also to create new experiences at its parks and resorts, merchandising, TV programming, and even Broadway shows. Each new franchise deepens the Disney library, which will continue to generate value over the years. Valuation 11/07/2014 Our fair value estimate of $95 per share implies price/earnings of approximately 19 times our fiscal 2015 earnings per share forecast. We expect average annual top-line growth of about 6.0% through fiscal 2019. We forecast 4.5% average annual sales growth from the media networks (6.4% for affiliate fees and 3.6% for advertising), driven by growth at ESPN and Disney Channel. We project 7.9% average annual sales growth during the next five years for parks and resorts. The investments that required heavy capital expenditures over the past few years are bearing fruit now including the launch of Shanghai Disneyland in fiscal 2016. We forecast operating margins for the segment to 20% by fiscal 2019. We have modeled 4.5% average annual growth for the filmed entertainment segment due to the addition of the Star Wars movies and the growth in television, subscription VOD and other distribution outlets. We estimate 5.6% annual growth for consumer products, which should benefit from continued global growth of key Disney brands, which now include Star Wars. We believe the interactive segment will continue to generate slightly positive operating income over the next five years, albeit a very small piece of the overall Disney pie. We project Disney's overall operating margin will improve to 24.1% in fiscal 2019 from 23.6% in fiscal 2014. We think this profit expansion is achievable, as the highest-margin segment, cable networks, will grow at a faster rate than the overall firm. Risk 08/05/2014 Disney’s results could suffer if the company cannot adapt to the changing media landscape. Basic pay-television service rates have continued to increase, which could cause consumers to cancel their subscriptions or reduce their level of service. ESPN garners the highest affiliate fees of any basic cable channel and a decrease in pay-TV penetration would slow down revenue growth. The cost of sports rights may continue to skyrocket, putting pressure on margins. The company's ad-supported broadcast networks, along with the theme parks and consumer products, will suffer if the economy weakens. Making movies is a hit-or-miss business, which could result in big swings in profitability for the filmed entertainment segment. Management 08/05/2014 While we place Disney's stewardship of shareholder capital as Standard, we believe that the current management team is in the upper end of the tier of its direct peers. Chairman and CEO Bob Iger began his tenure as CEO in October 2005 and chairman in March 2012 and is currently schedule to serve until June 2016. While Tom Staggs, former CFO and now head of the parks business, and Jay Rasulo, current CFO and former head of the parks business, are still viewed as the top candidates to replace Iger, we believe that Iger could decide to extend his retirement date once again. Under Iger, Disney has embraced new technology and also reinvigorated its commitment to high-quality content. He understood the importance of animation to the company early in his tenure, purchasing Pixar, the computer animation studio, in 2006, and then resurrecting Disney's own studio. Beyond Pixar, the company has made significant investment in new technology/distribution including buying Club Penguin (an MMO for children) and Maker Studios (a network of YouTube channels). Iger also purchased two major content creators (Marvel and Lucasfilm) that expanded the demographics served by the company. Overview Profile: Walt Disney owns the rights to some of the most globally recognized characters, from Mickey Mouse to Buzz Lightyear to Thor to Luke Skywalker. These characters and others are featured in several theme parks that Disney owns or licenses around the world. Disney makes live-action and animated films under several labels, including Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm. Disney also operates media networks including ESPN, ABC, and Disney Channel, and several television production studios. Un s2 compys
