Trader apuesta $11,25 millones a que algo malo va a pasar en menos de 60 dias
Resumiendo, un pajaro ha metido en opciones 11,25 millones a que el VIX subira por encima de 20 antes de abril (largo en 20 y corto en 25).
A ver como queda la cosa. Lo curioso es que también llegan noticias de que los propios insiders estan vendiendo como locos, siendo estos los que normalmente saltan del barco antes que este hunda.
Some Trader Has Made A Very Big Bet That Something Very Bad Will Happen Within The Next 60 Days
Stocks have been rallying relentlessly to post-crisis highs.
Meanwhile, the volatility index (aka the VIX, aka the "fear index") is near historic lows.
But according to UBS's Art Cashin, some options trader has made an enormous $11.25 million bet that the VIX will explode higher very soon.
And a rally in the VIX is usually accompanied by a drop in the stock markets.
A Very Big Bet In A Somewhat Unlikely Instrument – My friend, Jim Brown, the ever-alert consummate professional over at Option Investor pointed us to a rather unusual trade. Here's what he wrote in last night's edition of his valuable newsletter:
In past years I have reported on trades that were so large it appeared someone had inside knowledge of a pending event. Sometimes those were massive put positions on the S&P. A new trade just appeared that suggests there will be a market event in the near future. Last week somebody put on a call spread on the VIX using the April 20 and 25 puts. They bought 150,000 contracts for a net of $75 per contract. That is an $11,250,000 bet that the VIX will move over 20 over the next 60 days. You would have to be VERY confident in your outlook to risk $11 million on a directional position with the VIX at five year lows and the markets trying to break out to new highs.
Jim then goes on to list some of the scheduled events and deadlines visible over the next 60 days (mostly in Washington). When you add in the broad variety of geo-political possibilities, it's a decent reason to stay extra alert.
Hopefully, this person is wrong.
Fuente: http://www.businessinsider.com/art-cashin-on-big-vix-bet-2013-2
Lo de los insiders: http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-02-09/commentary/31040790_1_sell-to-buy-ratio-heavy-insider-insider-trends
Yo me pondría el casco.
Saludos,
