Esto moverá al mercado de bonos y sobre todo de equity
Puede ser muy beneficioso para la renta variable,
Os lo dejo,
Thoughts on the likelihood of Collective Action Clauses (CACs) in Greek bonds being activated in order to force through the PSI:
* Greek legislation allows for the activation of the CACs in the event that a quorum of 50% of the bond holders votes, by a majority of two thirds, to activate the clauses.
* Of note, however, by tendering bonds to participate in the PSI, bondholders are deemed to have agreed to the activation of the clauses. Thus, in our view, the CACs could be triggered either by a 66% participation in the PSI or by 66% of a quorum of 50% of the bondholders voting to activate the clauses.
* Conclusion: In our view, the activation of the CACs is highly likely and following on from that a credit event, triggering CDS payouts.
Comments from Trading Strategy - Antonin Jullier
* Based on the public announcements of various holders over the last 24 hours, we think 60-80% will vote, i.e. there will be a 50% quorum. Holders have either express their support for the PSI and just said they would vote. This makes hitting 66% likely going into tomorrow.
* The next 24 hours will have the following schedule: 8pm UK time tonight, exchange closes. 6am UK time tomorrow expects announcement of participation. Midday tomorrow, Eurogroup will host conference call to discuss next step. This is when we are likely to hear about CACs.
- If sub 50%, then PSI fails which could lead to a messy default. Negative but unlikely.
- If between 50 and 66%, still may be able to go through but uncertainty remains for a bit. Muted market reaction until confirmation.
- If between 66% and 90% then PSI should go through and CACs be activated - positive
- If more than 90%, not clear if CACs get activated. While the PSI would go through this could raise concerns on the value of CDS if PSI does not trigger.
- In the event CACs do not get activated, we would expect Greek credit to tighten (currently 75 points up front) but given the fact that the new bonds will be deliverables into the CDS (and are likely to trade around 30), we would see the CDS tighten to 65-70 points upfront.
* The market has rallied from 2430 back to 2500 over the last 48 hours. 2500 remains the big pin going into March 16th expiry and any teeny calls bought on the dip 2 days ago are likely to be delta hedged going into tomorrow.
* We expect puts to remain well bid today as spot rally is probably capped for 24 hours and market participants will use the opportunity to improve downside risk and slides.
* We continue to be constructive on the market (mainly for positioning reasons) and see last few days events as a long due retracement (see note sent out yesterday).
Atentos al Eurostoxx por encima de 2.500...Mucho dinero de bonos entraría en renta variable.