Re: Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc (THLD): Opiniones
Threshold Pharmaceuticals: TH-302 Phase IIb Clinical Results In First-Line Pancreatic Cancer
Stock Valuation With total diluted shares of 53.6M and a stock price of $6.86, Threshold has a market cap of 356.7MM and an EV of approximately 316.4MM. Commercial sales of TH-302 may start as early as in 2014 if TH-302 is approved for the pancreatic cancer indication based on Phase II data. The NDA may otherwise be filed for FDA approval in the pancreatic cancer indication in 2016 or 2017, and in the soft tissue sarcoma indication in 2015, after Phase III trials. Under the current deal structure, Threshold is expected to share profits from TH-302 sales in the U.S., where the drug could reach blockbuster status.
To estimate the intrinsic EV of Threshold, we looked at four biotech companies currently treading in NASDAQ: Alexion (ALXN), Vertex (VRTX), Amylin (AMLN) and BioMarin (BMRN), among which the median EV/Sales multiple is 9.6. The four companies have annual sales ranging from 441.4MM to 950.9MM. With an EV/S multiple of 9.6, we estimated that the EV for Threshold should be ~$4.8B in 2020. With a beta of 2.38, the required rate of return (IRR) for THLD investors is roughly 23%. Using the IRR to discount the estimated EV in 2020 back to 2012, we estimated that the intrinsic EV of Threshold should be approximately $733MM, or 2.3x higher than its current level, which equates to a~$15 share price. Of course, the estimation heavily depends on the outcome of the Phase IIb OS data. In summary, we remain cautiously optimistic on Threshold stock outlook and believe that the stock should rise significantly should the company release positive OS data.
