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Farmas USA

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Farmas USA
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#92161

Re: Farmas USA

Yo la verdad es que le he dado bastantes vueltas al tema de las opciones, y no me he decidido por parecerme caras. Al final mi idea es esperar a ver si la acción sube notablemente en las próximas semanas pre-news, digamos hasta entorno de los $10-12, y entonces me plantearía comprar puts (opciones de venta) a $6-7 como cobertura. A $7 para el 21-oct ahora andan a $190/lote (*). Si la acción sube, en circunstancias normales el coste de la put bajaría, pero el mercado no es tonto y sabe que hay un evento binario a la vuelta de la esquina, así que tampoco me sorprendería si el coste de la put no bajase demasiado.

(*) Cubrir mi posición entera (12,000 acciones) a ese precio, me costaría:
$190/lote x 120 lotes = $22,800

NVAX (Opciones)

#92162

Re: Farmas USA

como siempre, con mucha info, dejo la intro

Bioinvest - MTSL 833

http://www.bioinvest.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/MTSL-Issue-833.pdf

UPDATES: ACAD, ANTH, BMRN, FPRX, INCY, XON, IONS, MDCO, NKTR, NVAX, PCRX, SGMO, ZIOP

 

SENTIMENT — After The Rally, The Fallout From Opdivo Lung Cancer Miss — After breaking above the 50-day moving average for the first time since last September, sector leader BIIB had both unexpected positive clinical data (SMA) and unsolicited takeover speculation (MRK, AGN). Taken together, Biogen shares drove the sector indices another leg higher before taking a pause after the disappointing surprise of BMY’s Ovdipo lung cancer results, which provided a big setback for the blockbuster drug in the hottest therapeutic class which has been driving biotech stocks over the past 3+ years. On top of the high-flying JUNO deaths setting back the CAR-T dreams a bit, the biotech stock market response was impressively resilient overall. Until the financing floodgates just opened. While several observers including us doubt BIIB’s takeover possibility (citing slowing MS franchise, miss in Lingo and risk in Alzheimer’s programs), the stock remains near its post-rumor highs – up a whopping 40% above its recent (and 3+ year) low. The NBI touched a short-term overbought condition (RSI hit 75), and a pullback after the biggest rally of the year is also not unhealthy. Megamergers, therefore, have the most impact right now and we all know that Big Pharma/Big Bio are still on a shopping spree. On the flipside, an abundance of secondary financings (led by BMRN’s ~$800 million offering) put an abrupt halt and reversed some of the recent good feelings

We cheered the sector’s breakout last Issue, but we were also cautiously optimistic since biotech fund flows had not yet followed the positive direction of stocks. There have been no recent acquisition(s), in fact, just the opposite (in the form of new stock supply) has taken some of the wind out of the sail right now. While the group has recovered a good amount of its 2016 drop – NBI is down a little more than 13% YTD – the majority of the strength remains in the large cap, relatively lower-risk companies and the average biotech stock is down more than double digits this year. Furthermore, the sector’s fund flows continue to be flat and that tells us that primarily technical investors have come back to biotech and that generalist money, if any, are rotating into the safe biotech (and possible takeover) names. Without new buyers dedicating new money to biotech, short sellers (in and out) are likely driving the overall index move. Small cap stocks, which outnumber the big ones by a log or two, are for the most part still way out of favor, too illiquid and volatile for the current state of and/or lack of institutional support. Things change daily and as of this writing the indices are still above their ST support levels. A drop below, however, could make the trader’s reverse course. This does set the stage for a healthy stock picker’s market. While risk-averse investors continue to shy away from binary events, many stocks at these prices are being handsomely rewarded when good news occurs (see Whitepaper below).

#92163

Re: Farmas USA

La parte de Bioinvest de NVAX

NVAX – RSV Vaccine On Track To Be RESOLVE Very Soon

All timelines remain on track for a Q3 readout for the 11,850 patient Phase III clinical trial of the F Protein RSV vaccine in people over age 60. Top-line data will include the primary endpoint of reducing the moderate-to-severe symptoms of RSV disease including lower respiratory infection (LRIs) and safety ( https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02608502?term=Novavax+RSV&rank=3 ). Immunogenicity data will follow after the top-line data.

NDA Filing In 2017

Management continues to execute at a high level, just like a Big Pharma/Big Biotech. NVAX is ready to file an NDA in 2017 and the Company will request Fast Track review prior to the submission. Management has also met with two regulatory agencies – EMA and German regulatory agencies – and both are supportive of both adult trial’s designs and endpoints. They expect to file in the EU shortly after the US, and sign an ex-US partnership after the data is released.

Manufacturing progress also continues with PPQ for first commercial qualification runs for 2017 at their current facility. Moreover, they have signed on for space that will multiple capacity by 6x. In addition, future global capacity plans will also be part of a global partnership. Currently, GMP facility material is ready through 2018.

Regulatory

In June, ACIP formed and met for the first-ever working group for RSV. This is the key preparedness meeting for securing a CDC recommendation for annual vaccination. NVAX is working on the ACIP recommendation – including pharmacoeconomic data for economic burden and RSV disease burden evidence. Initial feedback from the working group – June meeting (ACIP website) – all support NVAX’ commercial strategies in preparation for the launch (2018 estimated). They agree that RSV incurs a ~$28 billion loss every year, – 180,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths of people over 65. Of the 2.5 million infections, 900,000 cases are medically attended every year by an ER, doctor or hospitalization.

Other trials with updates:

  1. PREPARE for maternal immunization – ongoing US, SA, Africa etc. – ongoing support with BMGF – still a large market
  2. Seasonal Combo “respiratory” trial – flu/RSV to begin in H1:17 with the novel nanoparticle technology – possibly to be included in the global partnership
  3. Zika vaccine program– preclinical underway, accelerating and working with a group with an animal challenge model Commercially Ready The Company is getting commercially prepared with meetings for vaccine policy initiatives, payer/policy advocates; the disease state awareness campaign www.discoverRSV.com and interaction/feeback from physicians that agree that the impact of RSV is underappreciated. Management will be presenting data every month for the next four months starting in August.

 

Commercially Ready

 The Company is getting commercially prepared with meetings for vaccine policy initiatives, payer/policy advocates; the disease state awareness campaign www.discoverRSV.com and interaction/feeback from physicians that agree that the impact of RSV is underappreciated. Management will be presenting data every month for the next four months starting in August

Novavax Is Ready; Bear Raid Post Earnings Calls

The Company will hold its annual analyst day onOctober 11th in NYC. Interestingly NVAX shares tend to be weak after quarterly calls (last call was May 4), and exactly that happened again (see NVAX chart). We listened carefully to the call and found the Company rather confident in the outcome of RESOLVE and the plans for the RSV vaccine and potential of the market. Timelines are unchanged – the Company has suggested a 2018 launch, but is also requesting Fast Track which could potentially make this vaccine available by next year’s RSV season. Nonetheless, we remain confident in NVAX and the RSV vaccine.

 

#92164

Re: Farmas USA

Mira, si el precio antes de datos llega a $12 como dices, directamente yo vendo todo y me he marcado un +100% y me dejo de opciones y puts 😂

#92165

Re: Farmas USA

Yo de momento he optado por, a partir de Septiembre, limitar mi posición a las ganancias realizadas, que no deja de ser otra manera de "cubrirme" ante un evento binario.

NVAX

#92167

Re: Farmas USA

totalmente de acuerdo. salen bastante caras, y también creo que el mercado no es tonto y no pasará por alto lo que suponen los resultados del RESOLVE

#92168

Re: Farmas USA

Sí, pero el escenario ante un fallo de la fase 3 es de que el precio con suerte estará en $2.

En mi caso, que llevo de precio medio un poco menos de $5, cubriendo 1/3 de las acciones a $4 o 1/4 a $5, limitaría las pérdidas y serían más digeribles. Cada uno debe hacer sus números y ver si le compensan.

Estas puts son lo que llaman protective puts, porque se tienen también las acciones compradas.

Sobre el precio, aunque estuviera a $12 solo soltaría unas pocas. Si todo va bien, espero que valgan bastante más en el futuro. No tengo prisa, no me quiero perder una posible gran subida por vender pronto.