Información, información, información, información

Bueeeeenoooooo. Mensaje de la Housing Industry Association australiana, por favor, mantengan el tipo, por favor, no entren en pánico, por favor, por favor, por favor... Ositos míos.
Esto es la leche. Australia se suma al carro. Bueno, o a lo mejor abc news online es de polanco... jejeje.
"The Reserve Bank says data from a number of industry sources indicates house prices fell nationwide in the first and second quarters of this year."
y
"Housing Industry Association economist Simon Tennent says while prices on the whole have turned, the market is still very segmented."

La esperanza es lo último que se pierde

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200407/s1155049.htm
'Don't panic' over prices, home owners told

The Housing Industry Association says home owners need not be concerned about the latest figures showing a drop in house prices.

The Reserve Bank says data from a number of industry sources indicates house prices fell nationwide in the first and second quarters of this year.

The drop follows quarter percentage point interest rate rises in both November and December, taking rates to 5.25 per cent.

The RBA has looked at data from a variety of industry sources and says house and apartment prices have fallen nationwide since the December quarter.

The biggest falls have been in Sydney and Melbourne, while other capital cities have shown mixed results.

Brisbane has seen a smaller price fall, while data for Adelaide, Canberra and Perth suggest price rises but they were modest ones compared with the strong increases seen until late last year.

Housing Industry Association economist Simon Tennent says while prices on the whole have turned, the market is still very segmented.

"Most of the falls at the moment are concentrated in very select markets in Sydney and Melbourne," he said.

"If we get out of those two large cities, we can see continued growth in regional Australia and we certainly see continued growth in Adelaide and Perth.

"It's still a 'don't panic' thing for consumers. They've enjoyed three years of plus 20 per cent growth, so clearly the forecasts are not for a house price crash but for a house price cooling."

The Real Estate Institute of Australia blames says the high cost of construction facing renovators is the main reason for the price drops.

Ian Wells from the institute in New South Wales says buyers who are purchasing to renovate are faced with high costs from builders and other tradesmen, turning them away from the market.

Mr Wells says a number of other factors are also at play, including seasonal influences like the cooler climate, when prices are traditionally weaker.

He says the falls are concerning as the economy is very strong but says the institute expects housing prices to pick up in spring.

Analysts expect the RBA to lift rates again before the end of the year

Coño, y que van a hacer con el Canberra Meeting Point?

Bueno, bueno, bueno. Estos osos son de libro:
"The good news? Prices will fall in some areas but we expect a soft landing relative to other cycles" Tufo a esperanza que no veas
Por cierto, esta gente que publica la noticia vende y trata de vender (habla de un repunte tras una no muy gran caída, algo bien complicado si el ajuste no es grande para que se equipare el precio a los salarios y más complicado aún si tenemos en cuenta el overshooting que va a haber)

http://loan.echoice.com.au/pages/h_housing_market.html
What is the housing market doing?
Good news for buyers: home prices have fallen all around the country.
Australia's central bank has confirmed that the long property boom is over as the last strongholds of house price growth - Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth - finally succumb to higher interest rates.
A range of indicators show that house prices around the country fell during the first half of 2004.
With the housing slowdown now spreading around the country, attention has turned to how far and how fast prices may fall. According to most analysts, the market is more likely to experience an orderly winding down, with pockets of steady house price growth offsetting price falls elsewhere.
What's happening in the housing market
While uncertainty still surrounds the exact scope of house price movements in Australia, most analysts agree that prices in key capital cities are falling or stable.
In its recent Statement on the Economy, the RBA confirmed prices that were falling. "Developments in the housing market, and the associated growth in credit, have had an important bearing on assessments of the economic situation in the recent period. The overheating in the housing market last year carried the potential to destabilise the broader economy, the more so the longer it continued.
"There are clear indications, however, that the situation has now changed. After the rapid increases in house prices up to the end of last year, the available indicators suggest that prices declined in the first half of 2004.
"Auction clearance rates fell sharply around the turn of the year and have since remained well below average, suggesting vendors' price expectations are not being met. There has also been an easing in the demand for housing finance, particularly from investors, though this will need to adjust further if the growth of housing credit is to return to a reasonably sustainable pace. Although, at this stage, the fall in house prices and slowing in finance have been relatively modest, these trends are indicative of an easing in demand pressures in the housing market after the overheated conditions that prevailed last year," the statement said.
What's happening around Australia
Our analysis of housing markets around Australia shows a markedly different outlook from six months ago when double-digit house price growth was the norm. Here is a snapshot: Sydney
Over the March quarter, Sydney's median house price rose just 3.5 per cent. Prices were up 15.8 per cent over the year. A separate report by private group the Australian Property Monitors (APM) found prices in Sydney declined 7.5 per cent over the March quarter.
Melbourne: Latest figures from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria confirm what many experts have been saying all year: Melbourne's property market is in retreat. The median house price dipped 2.8 per cent in the June quarter, down from $368,000 to $357,000. This takes the fall in the Melbourne median price to 3.5 per cent over the past six months. Prices were down 0.8 per cent in March.
Brisbane: Brisbane house prices are now declining. Latest figures released by the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ) show Brisbane shire's median house price fell 2.5 per cent to $346,000 over the June quarter.
Adelaide: According to the latest official State Government figures, Adelaide's median house price grew 3.2 per cent in the June quarter. House prices were up 17.3 per

Esperánzameeeee, te divertiraaaássss...
"Overseas migration is strong and should increase as white collar employment strengthens" jijiji, ¿a qué suena esto?

What will happen next
Property slowdowns are often regarded with fear and trepidation by home owners and investors alike. But there are signs that the current slowdown is unlikely to end in a price crash. Key factors shaping the property market over the 12 months include:
* Economic growth - Australia's economy is growing strongly and a coordinated pick-up in global economic growth should support this positive outlook.
* Low unemployment -The unemployment rate remains at near record lows. Strong jobs growth across most key sectors means one of the key triggers for a property crash - high unemployment - is unlikely in the medium-term.
* Interest rates - Expectations of an interest rate rise later this year will keep some investors on the side lines. However interest rates are not expected to rise by much in the next six months, before stabilising through early 2005.
Further ahead, Macquarie Bank warns that frosty conditions await property investors in the year ahead. In its latest Property Market Outlook Report (2004), Macquarie Bank predicts that despite increased volatility, a soft landing is likely in most property sectors.
"This year we see potential fault lines running through residential property markets,"
"House price growth peaked in the last year, and overshot in every capital city in Australia. We can look forward to a more volatile and diverse residential market this year. The good news? Prices will fall in some areas but we expect a soft landing relative to other cycles."
Key exceptions will be the already weak inner city apartment market, particularly undifferentiated apartments in Melbourne and Sydney.
The report notes that underlying demand remains strong in most capital cities, with Brisbane remaining the clear leader in house price growth and investor demand.
"Overseas migration is strong and should increase as white collar employment strengthens. Changing household composition, due to preference shifts and the ageing of Australia's population, means that while our population is growing strongly, household formation is growing at a much stronger rate."
A separate study by independent analysts BIS Shrapnel warns that house prices in Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide and Canberra will barely keep pace with inflation over the next two years.

Coño, a lo mejor lo hacen aquí, el paraíso del ladrillo imperecedero.
Por cierto, ¿te lo has leído?

Si, ya lo he leido....

Apasionante oye....y que tiene que ver con España?

O estas pensando en cambiar de isla?

Uy no sé, quizás la peña del FMI si le ve relación:

http://www.laopinion.com/tucasa/?rkey=00040922153308313568
Predicen caída del precio de las viviendas
Como el boom inmobiliario ha sido global, el FMI espera que la caída también sea mundial, y afectará el crecimiento económico
25 de septiembre de 2004
WASHINGTON, D.C.— El Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) alertó que existe el riesgo de una “corrección brusca” en el precio de la vivienda en varios países, especialmente en España, a medida que aumentan las tasas de interés en el mundo.
El organismo financiero internacional dio la voz de alarma en su informe semestral Perspectivas económicas mundiales.
Según el modelo econométrico utilizado por el FMI, el previsible aumento de las tasas de interés desinflará el boom en los precios de los bienes raíces, lo que tendrá un impacto “sustancial”, pero “manejable” a nivel global.
Sin embargo, España, Australia, Irlanda y Reino Unido son especialmente vulnerables, ya que allí las condiciones económicas no explican la extraordinaria subida del mercado inmobiliario desde 1997, a juicio de este organismo.
Con ello dejó entrever que una importante inversión especulativa está añadiendo “leña al fuego”.
El FMI advirtió que en estas naciones “existe el peligro de que mayores tasas de interés disparen un ajuste a la baja mucho mayor en los precios de la vivienda”.
“La ralentización del crecimiento de los precios de la vivienda en estos países es más probable en relación con otros países”, afirmó el director de investigación del FMI, Raghuram Rajan.
Un ajuste de este tipo tendría “consecuencias más graves” en la actividad económica, puesto que este sector es de gran importancia para el Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), de acuerdo con el informe.
Precisamente el martes, el Banco de la Reserva Federal (Fed) de Estados Unidos elevó en 0.25 puntos su tasa de interés de referencia y reiteró su intención de aumentar los tipos de manera “mesurada” en el futuro.
El estudio del FMI constató que el precio del dinero y el valor de las viviendas en Estados Unidos son factores “clave” en las fluctuaciones del mercado inmobiliario en otros países.
En abril, en su análisis periódico de la economía española, el FMI había indicado que el riesgo de un desmoronamiento en los precios de los bienes raíces no era “inminente”, pero señaló que el ritmo de la subida no podía mantenerse sin que aumentase “el potencial de consecuencias adversas”.
El valor del metro cuadrado residencial subió en España aproximadamente en un 70% de 1997 a 2003 en términos reales, esto es descontada la inflación, un aumento sólo superado en Irlanda y Reino Unido, según el FMI.
Para entender la razón de esta tremenda subida, el FMI diseñó un modelo econométrico en el que introdujo las bajas tasas de interés, el crecimiento de la renta per cápita y otros factores económicos “fundamentales”.
Su estudio explicó los aumentos en 15 países, pero no en Australia, Irlanda, España y Reino Unido, cuyos mercados inmobiliarios excedieron las predicciones entre un 10% y un 20%.
Ese crecimiento por encima de las condiciones de sus economías es lo que hace a estos países vulnerables a mayores caídas, según se desprende del informe.

Rentas más caras
En relación con la renta per cápita de los ciudadanos, las casas en España son las más caras de los países estudiados por el FMI.
Su precio también está desproporcionado con respecto a los alquileres, aunque mayor desajuste aún existe en Irlanda en este ámbito, según los cálculos del FMI, que utiliza datos de 2003.
Las viviendas son el ejemplo tradicional de un bien no exportable cuyo precio, según la teoría económica clásica, se rige por factores nacionales.
No obstante, el estudio del FMI refuta esta imagen al constatar que los movimientos del precio de las viviendas están “bastante sincronizados” en el ámbito mundial, debido a la influencia de las tasas de interés y a la mayor integración de los mercados financieros.
Así, dado que el boom inmobiliario ha sido

Joder que pesadez con lo del FMI.....

Te has leido ya la explicación del Barcelona Meeting Points Newspaper????