La segunda divisa de Europa, el Medi

La verdad es que no sé si este articulo va en serio o es broma.

Is Europe Headed Toward A Two-Currency System?
Posted May 26th 2010 5:30PM by Joseph Lazzaro
Filed under: Forecasts, Financial Crisis

Could Europe emerge from its debt crisis with two currencies -- one for wealthier countries, and a separate currency for debt-plagued countries? It's possible.

The wealthier countries would the euro. The poor countries -- Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and possibly Ireland, could create a new monetary union with a new currency, perhaps called 'the Medi' -- short for Mediterranean.

The chief advantage of the new currency would be an ability by the poor countries to more-effectively monetize their existing debt, and improve their global competitiveness on a cost basis. In short order, traveling to Greece, Italy, Spain, etc. would become very cheap for major currency holders.

The chief downside would be the shockwave affect the Medi would have on bond and stock markets. The euro countries hold about $2.4 trillion in loans made to the poor countries, and they expect to be paid back in a hard currency. Creating a new currency union would almost certainly result in a reduction in the value of the loans.

'Bloomberg's Rule' Applies

Further, investors should not assume that rich country power in the lender-borrower equation is high because the poor countries owe so much money. On the contrary, the poor countries have more influence than they would have, had they owed a considerably smaller amount. And the reason is 'Bloomberg's Rule:'

Mike Bloomberg, founder of Bloomberg LLP, and now mayor of New York City, is noted for his axiom about finance: 'If you owe the bank $1 million, the bank's got you. But if you owe the bank $800 million, you've got the bank.'

Monetary/Economic Analysis: Of course, from technological, export product, and venture capital-haven standpoints, the poor countries have very little to offer the global economy. The poor countries are totally un-chic regions, from an economic standpoint. The poor countries would also have to shift to a more subsidence-based economy in order to de-couple from the euro-zone. But, if the poor countries are willing to do without high-tech, glitzy toys and 'the latest and the best' of every type of consumer good, a de-coupling is possible. But it's not likely

Amigo Vinagreto, ¿quizá crees que tal dilema es posible?. Cuando se asocian dos empresarios con deudas, el futuro de la nueva asociación aparece como bastante obscuro. Probablemente, acrecentará la crisis de ambos y la nueva empresa no tardaría en derrumbarse. Y seguramente esa caida sería insuperable para cada uno de ellos.
Una segunda moneda de paises pobres, solo puede resultar en una moneda igualmente pobre y devaluada, falta de confianza para nuevos inversores. No tengo ni idea de macro ni microeconomía, pero no hay que entender para prever unos resultados desastrosos cuado se asocian dos mendigos.
Por otro lado, los análisis de Bloomberg no dejan --en mi opinión-- de ser sumamente interesados por cuanto ese señor constituye una de las mayores fortunas del mundo, forma parte esencial del grupo Bilderberg y, además, achaca la devaluación del dólar a la evolución creciente del euro, perjudicando notablemente la economía de EUA. Su análisis me inspira la misma confianza que los informes de las agencias de rating.
Por otra parte, tampoco creo que sea fácil volver a las antiguas monedas nacionales.
¿Cuál sería la solución?. La ignoro, pero desde luego la propuesta por Bloomberg, tampoco, porque en el fondo lo único que ese señor pretende es debilitar la economía de la Eurozona en favor de la yanqui que, por cierto, también esá muy devaluada y necesita de gravísimas reformas estructurales. Saludos