Porque hay que estar siempre invertido y no hacer caso de nada............

FRIDAY, AUGUST 15, 2008

Dow 370,000
This article originally appeared on TheDiv-Net one week ago.

In my previous article last week I tried to illustrate the point that one should start investing as soon as possible. This time I will try to prove that long-term investing and dividend reinvestment are important tools that would enable the shrewd dividend investor through good and bad times.

I recently stumbled upon a long-term chart of the Dow Jones industrial’s average which covers the period from 1920 to 2005. I have seen the long term chart of this stock market index multiple times before. The index rose from 107.23, which was the closing price for 1919 to over 11,000 by early August 2008. In a previous article I cited a research paper that showed that if dividend reinvestment was taken into consideration into the DJ index, its price would not stand at 11,000 but it would be several times over that.

Using just the value line annual dividends data for the 1920-2005 periods, as well as the final closing values for each year for the same period from DJ indexes I was able to perform the simple test of dividend reinvestment assuming a $107.23 initial investment on 12/31/1919 into a hypothetical index fund that tracks Dow Jones Industrials Average.
In reality this period exceeds the usual person’s investing timeframe by two to three times, but nevertheless the results are truly amazing.
If your great grandfather bought the hypothetical Dow Jones index fund in 1919 for $107.23 and reinvested the dividends into more index fund shares, he would have seen his dividend income rise from $5.80 in 1920 to $8,715.12 by 2005.

Furthermore, the initial investment of $107.53 would have grown to a staggering $371,028.01. You could check the data from this spreadsheet below.

The results of this passive approach show that it pays to ignore the media and all their gloomy forecasts about “the end of the world” and just stick with your investment while methodically reinvesting your dividends.

Most people are told that it took twenty five years for the Dow Jones Industrials Average index to surpass its 1929 high after The Great Depression and the Second World War. This is not true – accounting for dividend reinvestment Dow Jones Industrials index was actually able to surpass its 1929 high about fifteen years later.

Another gloomy period for stocks was 1965 to 1982, when Dow was stuck in a range between 600 and 1050 points, while producing a mere 8% total return for a 17 year period. At the same time the annual dividends that Dow paid increased form $28.60 in 1965 to $54.10 in 1982. In addition to that, accounting for dividends, a $1000 investment in Dow would have been worth about $2334 by the end of 1982.

To summarize I believe that the best strategy is to ignore all the naysayer’s, talk about recession, depression and political instability and go long stocks for the long run.

http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2008/08/dow-370000.html

Buenas Scora.... y creo que se resume:

1. Diversificación temporal: Implica constancia.

2. Diversificación empresarial: Implica un tiempo a la semana para estudiar la evolución de varias empresas y nos protege.

3. Paciencia, y si a esto le añadimos un poco de Paciencia mejor que mejor. Los resultados como nos indicas no se miden en 1 ó 2 años.

Saludos y gracias por estos aportes.

Por cierto con respecto al título.... hay que estar siempre invertido; aunque no al 100%. El motivo podemos conseguir mejores precios; pero eso aveces supone un coste de oportunidad que hace que no merezca la pena; tienes que tener fijados unos precios/objetivos y si se dan no plantearte y si bajan más?? puede que se escape de nuevo y además de perder el precio pierdas la oportunidad de haber empezado a amortizar antes tu inversión por n tenerla invertida.

Lo que pasa que cada inversor somos un mundo, yo vendi mi negocio en el 97, digamos que estaba 100% invertido en una empresa, el fruto de esa venta lo he ido invirtiendo en los ultimos 13-14 años y ahora estoy otra vez 100% invertido pero con mucho menos riesgo que antes.
s2

Una curiosidad Sco, solo en tanto por ciento de beneficio...mejor ahora o entonces?

Saludos

Entonces pero encima por goleada, pero eso es porque siempre he sido muy conservador, si lo hubiese metido todo por ejemplo en MO,no un pequeño porcentaje como tengo, hoy hubiese multiplicado por 4.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=mo&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=20&x=0&y=0

Por cierto, los que me compraron el negocio andan medio quebrados, tambien es cierto que yo no lo estaria,jaja, es que era bueno en lo mio.
s2

Estoy seguro de ello...aunque los tiempos ahora son muy difíciles.

Saludos

(de todas maneras, las buenas marcas siempre tienen salida...¿tenías este modelo?)

Jajaja, nooo, ese lo he tenido para mi uso hasta hace poco, ahora he pasado a citroen, ya sabes, la dichosa crisis.
s2