España
CÓDIGO AMIGO
On October 5, 2015, at the request of our Board of Directors, Jack Lief, our President, Chief Executive Officer and principal financial officer, retired from the company, including our Board, effective today.
Más bien parece que "lo retiran" a petición del Consejo de Administración
http://invest.arenapharm.com/secfiling.cfm?filingid=1628280-15-7552&CIK=1080709
ARNA
Dejo este link, es un hilo del foro yahoo de THLD
el forero yinzhiqi, el cual me ha probado desde hace tiempo ser un forero serio,de ayer:
".... Last conference webcast, CEO Dr. Selick did mention that two top-line data could be only a week away. They must be aware that they will reach 434 events for STS and 508 events for PC at about the same time....
Bottom line: two top-line data potentially released simultaneously definitely reduces the downside risk."
LO DEJO CAER
THLD
edito: y otro post del mismo forero:
The value of THLD solely depends on the success probability of Phase 3 STS and Phase 3 PC, which are due in about two months. Whether these two Phase 3 will succeed is not affected by global market slow down, not influenced by interest rate hike, and has nothing to do with someone’s comments…..
The enterprise value (EV) for a successful STS first-line cancer drug conservatively is 1 billion dollar. Let us say, 0.7 billion dollar (for the simplicity of calculation), with current ~70 million shares outstanding, means $10/share.
The EV for a successful PC first-line cancer drug (more patients, ~120,000 new cases per year US&EU) is at least 2 billion dollars. Let us say, 1.4 billion dollar, with current ~70 million shares outstanding, means $20/share.
If both of them succeed, the implied EV from other indications (lung cancer, MM…) could add up quickly to another 2 billion dollars (Share price is forward looking…).
Basing on the science behind of TH302, its phase2 (90 patients) data, control arm of phase 3 EORTC 62012 and PICASSO, and the control arm of Lilly’s recent Phase 2 STS trail, the odd of Phase 3 STS success, conservatively, is about 60%.
Phase 3 PC has slight higher odd, ~70%, basing on its well-run phase 2 data.
Here is my simple math for current share price (without considering other potential indications):
The probability of success in both STS and PC: 60%*70%= 42%
The probability of success in STS and fail in PC: 60%*(1-70%)= 18%
The probability of fail in STS and success in PC: (1-60%)*70%= 28%
The probability of fail in both STS and PC: (1-60%)*(1-70%)= 12%
Fair share price before data readout upon the above assumptions:
$30*42% + $10*18%+ $20*28% +$0*12%
= $12.6 +1.8 + 5.6 = $20
Just my humble opinion;
I personally do not think that efficient market theory can be applied with small biotech firms.
edito: he subido lo de las.probabilidades a efectos ludicos, personalmente me paso esas estimaciones de prob. y precios .... por el arco del triunfo
En un informe de investigación publicado esta mañana, analista de Cantor Daniel Brims reiteró una recomendación de compra sobre las acciones de Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: THLD), con un precio objetivo de $ 14, después de pasar un día con la gerencia de la compañía......
THLD
Estoy leyendo que el Wall Street Journal esta dando caña de nuevo con el tema de los precios en los farmacos ...
Me parece que hoy va a ser un dia duro en la oficina ... apertura bajista por lo que se ve ... que tengamos reversal ya es otra cuestion ...
