Contenidos recomendados por Roadtofreedom

Roadtofreedom 04/02/26 15:44

Ha respondido al tema AzValor Internacional: seguimiento y opiniones

Hay que verificar bien los economics de Oral Wegoby.Ese fue el motivo por el que vendí el 9 de Enero.No me planteo entrar hasta más abajo y por un rebote.

Roadtofreedom 04/02/26 15:42

Ha respondido al tema AzValor Internacional: seguimiento y opiniones

azValor Internacional: 317,63€

Roadtofreedom 04/02/26 15:03

Ha respondido al tema AzValor Internacional: seguimiento y opiniones

Eli Lilly ya se lo ha levantado. Otro tema diferente es que haya mercado para todos, pero el liderazgo lo ha perdido.

Roadtofreedom 04/02/26 13:29

Ha respondido al tema AzValor Internacional: seguimiento y opiniones

Mira:The Bioavailability Tax: Oral Wegovy fights a battle against the poor absorption and high clearance with an orally dosed peptide. The dosing strategy requires substantially more drug due to low bioavailability.The Cost Multiplier: This strategy requires a substantial increase in the amount of active pharmaceutical ingredient, or API. At 25mg daily vs. 2.4 mg weekly, this is ~70x more API compared to the injectable.Falling Wegovy Prices: The cash price for oral Wegovy has been cut to $299/mo, shattering the previous ~$1,350/mo revenue per patient model.Margin Pressure: Because the API is a complex peptide, the resulting manufacturing of 70x more API for >70% less revenue will reduce gross margins.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Novo Nordisk: Science of the "Bioavailability Tax”While Wall Street views oral Wegovy as a convenience catalyst to unlock sales growth, the science behind it is an efficiency disaster. This stems from the fact that the API in Wegovy (semaglutide) is a peptide with a molecular weight of 4,113 Daltons.The huge molecular weight and amino-acid backbone combine to make the API very impermeable to the GI tract and simultaneously highly metabolized in the gut. These two factors amplify one another, leading to very low bioavailability (~1-2%), which is defined as the percentage of API that survives the GI tract and reaches systemic circulation. In other words, for every 100 molecules of semaglutide that you swallow, only 1 or 2 reach systemic circulation.This inefficiency necessitates a 'brute-force' solution: to deliver the same systemic concentrations of API as the weekly injection, oral Wegovy requires 25mg per day, versus subcutaneous Wegovy requiring 2.4mg per week. This puts total API around 70x higher (10mg vs. 700mg per month). We are effectively flooding the body with drugs because 98-99% are wasted.-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Novo Nordisk: Unit Economics and the JAMA Cost DataWhile Novo's exact cost of API production is not outlined in financial reports, a study was published in JAMA (see Table 1 for estimated prices). This gives us some ability to model COGS for oral vs. injectable Wegovy. These numbers indicate that the pill isn't only biologically inefficient; it is financially inefficient.The study estimated a cost for injectable semaglutide at $0.89 - $4.73 per month at a 0.77mg weekly dose. Taking the low end of this estimate and adjusting the dose to high-dose injected Wegovy (2.4mg per week) reaches a cost of ~$2.77/mo. The injector device adds additional cost; however, the massive increase in API cost collapses margins. At a gross profit of $105 for oral Wegovy vs. $271.23 for injectable Wegovy, Novo will need 2.58x more patients to reach the same profit if all patients move to the oral drug. Perhaps these costs have been reduced, but even if they have been halved, oral Wegovy will not be able to reach the high margins of its injectable counterpart.

Roadtofreedom 04/02/26 10:25

Ha respondido al tema Grifols (GRF): siguiendo de cerca la acción

Más que el coste de oportunidad, es la certeza que NO se ha sumado a las subidas generalizadas en los mercados y la INCERTIDUMBRE que se sume a las correcciones del mercado

Roadtofreedom 04/02/26 10:01

Ha respondido al tema AzValor Internacional: seguimiento y opiniones

Novo ha sido un desastre ayer por el guidance de 2026.Constellation SW ha caído cerca del 60%. Mañana presenta resultados

Roadtofreedom 03/02/26 21:48

Ha respondido al tema Grifols (GRF): siguiendo de cerca la acción

Desesperante, eh.

Roadtofreedom 03/02/26 21:21

Ha respondido al tema AzValor Internacional: seguimiento y opiniones

Nuestro TOP1 ó TOP2https://x.com/javierblas/status/2018716695779586441?s=61&t=MonBx7HtXj2_pbo2fxnGbgBREAKING: Glencore agrees to sell 40% stake on its two African copper and cobalt businesses to a US government-backed group as Washington continues to seek more control over critical minerals. The deal values the 100% of the mines at $9 billion, including debt.

Roadtofreedom 03/02/26 21:20

Ha respondido al tema AzValor Internacional: seguimiento y opiniones

Pinta bien para mañana.

Roadtofreedom 03/02/26 18:07

Ha respondido al tema AzValor Internacional: seguimiento y opiniones

Incomprensible por parte del alemán, si algo ha demostrado USA es que ya no es un socio confiable.