Participaciones del usuario Marcosufc

Marcosufc 22/10/14 12:20

Ha respondido al tema Ence (ENC) ¿Qué está pasando?

es un PDF . No se como hacerlo.

Marcosufc 22/10/14 10:15

Ha respondido al tema Ence (ENC) ¿Qué está pasando?

nuevo informe emitido por BBVA sobre la ENCE. No muy positivo. Quien lo quiera que me escriba un privado.

Marcosufc 17/10/14 13:14

Ha respondido al tema Ence (ENC) ¿Qué está pasando?

es gracioso porque las 60.000 acciones que movio el banco eran mias....jajaja

Marcosufc 15/10/14 11:53

Ha respondido al tema Pulso de mercado

Yo estoy hasta las trancas con Lufthansa y perdiendo hasta la camisa....Los mercados estan en una calmachicha que pone los pelos de punta. Por debajo de 9950 solo hay dolor y crujir de dientes....

Marcosufc 15/10/14 10:28

Ha respondido al tema Pulso de mercado

me he leido de cabo a rabo el speech de Dragui y me he quedado igual que estaba

Marcosufc 15/10/14 09:57

Ha respondido al tema LVMH

el problema es que si China no crece y le explota la burbuja inmobiliaria, tal vez el negocio de LVMH tenga más cuesta arriba el camino de las ventas. Yo estoy dentro del valor desde ayer por una vision meramente especulativa. Espero no pillarme los dedos mucho. Los datos europeos y como se comporten los mercados en un par de dias pueden ser clave

Marcosufc 15/10/14 09:02

Ha respondido al tema LVMH

Un informe de ultima hora LVMH: Not great but not the disaster feared Overweight LVMH reported 9mths Sales up 4% reported and 4% organic to €21,397m broadly in line with expectations. In Q3 14 Sales LVMH Group Sales came in up 6% reported and 4% organic; the 4% organic was actually a tad better than expected. By divisions, Wines & Spirits was the sore point, down an implied 7% organic in Q3 14 on our calculations, offset by stronger organic Sales growth in Perfumes & Cosmetics (+10%) and Watches & Jewellery (+8%). We received a lot of incomings on Fashion & Leather Goods that we calculated up 1% to 2% organic in Q3 vs other analysts calculating 0%. This is big deal to investors, in particular those with a shorter term horizon: 0% is considered a disappointment, 2% good enough in a sea of sequential deceleration in the sector (F&LG in Q2 was 0%). Having looked at all the data we have on hand, we stand by our calculations and lay out in this note why. Ultimately as we sit back from the disproportionate debate as to whether F&LG posted 0% or 2% growth in the quarter, we find this was not a good set of numbers but not the disaster feared. We will await the conf call at 3pm CET on Wednesday to make more educated changes to our estimates but at this stage we anticipate limited impact despite the negative division mix as we are already factoring in significant margin pressure in Cognac in H2. We stand by our calculations of Fashion & Leather Goods up 1% to 2% organic in Q3 14. We actually think it was most likely closer to 2%. We hear loud and clear that some brokers have calculated 0% and rounding can lead you to one or the other end of that spectrum. Still there are several cross-references that lead us to believe it’s closer to our calculations: 1) F&LG in total reported growth, this in fact was 1% below, unlikely that this was driven by a 3% miss on organic sales growth (consensus at +3%, +1% was the acceptable threshold post the Italian Borsa Luxury conference and Burberry results), 2) the forex impact was a tad better maybe (but note that if it were +2%, you would have had to sell a fair bit to get there in a close to neutral forex environment in Q3 so it is biting its own tail) but Loro Piana’s impact was a tad lower, and 3) LVMH Group organic sales growth was 4% in Q3 (this is given by LVMH), i.e. the rounding has to have been rather favourable by divisions to reach this level and this includes the F&LG division. Management will not doubt be asked at its conf call what was the organic sales growth in Q3 for the division and how LV fared with it. It has more often than not chosen not to answer this question. Wines & Spirits is a key sore point to investigate. The performance in Q3 was a lot worse than expected, down 7% on our calculations, and appears to have been dragged down by Cognac in China still. Indications of sell in vs sell out and guidance for Q4 and into FY15 will be a key although we doubt LVMH management will commit to much before the critical Chinese New Year event. Perfumes & Cosmetics and Watches & Jewellery were pleasing accelerations offsetting most of the Cognac weakness and at odds with cautious comments on both categories from other players. Within Watches & Jewellery Bulgari jewellery was a stand out which should have a slight positive read on Richemont. Selective Retailing up 6% organic was in line with our expectations, a slowdown on H1 14 we would expect driven by HK. By geography, an improved growth rate in Europe and the US were said to have compensated for the slowdown observed in Asia. LVMh

Marcosufc 15/10/14 08:34

Ha respondido al tema Me vuelvo loco, compro 20.000 acciones de Tesco

Ha perdido fuerza en la subida. Espero que los indices hoy reboten porque si no, nos vamos a los infiernos.

Marcosufc 15/10/14 08:32

Ha respondido al tema Ence (ENC) ¿Qué está pasando?

como sabes que son los de UBS? Que plataforma usas?

Marcosufc 15/10/14 08:28

Ha respondido al tema Lufthansa: seguimiento de la acción

La han puesto en neutral los de UBS y parece que no descartan verla por debajo de los 9€ en un escenario pesimista. Su upside sube hasta 21 en un escenario muy optimista. No creo que sea mala cosa tenerla en cartera pero puede dar dolores de cabeza.