My Analysis and Recommendation
In summary, Novavax faces significant hurdles in 2024. Key concerns include the Gavi dispute and the "going concern" issue, both casting doubt on the company's future. These elements suggest a "Strong Sell" recommendation for their stock. This is a rating downgrade from my previous assessment due to major financial concerns heading into the new year.
Investors must note the high risk of Novavax struggling to survive the next year. With limited cash and a possible Gavi refund looming, the company's prospects are dim. Consequently, I think it is likely that in 2024, Novavax's enterprise value-which is currently $209 million-will drop below zero. Although its stock is trading at 52-week lows and the market has priced in many of these concerns, do not underestimate the stock's ability to crater further following the realization of key events (e.g., arbitration decisions, equity dilutions, etc.).
It's important to consider the risks of my "Sell" recommendation too. A positive resolution with Gavi and new funding or partnerships could improve Novavax's situation. Such developments could lead to a "short squeeze" and significantly boost its stock price.
To conclude, Novavax currently presents a risky investment. Caution is advised, leaning towards selling NVAX shares. Although a turnaround is possible, it's a slim chance, overshadowed by substantial financial and operational challenges.
Buen análisis y "buena y lógica recomendación de venta".
Entre comillas porque como el mismo dice si lo de Gavi sale bien y hay new funding o algún partnership, la acción en mi opinión la catapultan a $60.
Mi conclusión:
Esto es un juego de trileros donde nos presentan una empresa en ruinas 1 día y al día siguiente pueden presentarnos la misma empresa como que es la mejor farma que existe.
Y ES ASÍ.
De un día para otro de la bancarrota al cielo. De 2$ a 60$. No hay más y dependerá de los peces que haya dentro. La putada es que ese dato nunca lo sabremos.