Re: SUN BREAK
ala, ya se esfumo nuevamente y como todos los dias la subida de las preferentes,
hasta mañana a todos, buenas noches
Tema interesante
8/17/2010 12:15 EST
The FDIC has had two years to collect itself from Bair's hysteria in Sept. '08.
It knows it was snookered and wants JPM to shoulder the obligation to WMI shareholders with a stock payout. As for the claims of former WMI shareholders and WMB noteholders, which are based on malfeasance, the FDIC doesn't intend to pay these either, and didn't indemnify JPM for them. They're the most dangerous parties to JPM because I don't believe the FDIC was ever part of any illegal shorting or rumor mongering, just stupidity, and those parties haven't filed claims against the FDIC anyway.
As I've said for a long time, the FDIC's problem is WMI's current shareholders, because whatever JPM did the FDIC is on the hook for all of WMI's losses as primary obligor -- and it knows it.
There are two constituencies here: (1) WMI current shareholders; and (2) WMB noteholders and WMI former shareholders. Group 1 has claims against both JPM and the FDIC. Group 2 has claims against JPM. Thanks to Boston, we know the FDIC has a hook in JPM for its liability to Group 1, so JPM is really on the hook for everything. As a practical matter, can JPM's stock weather the kind of dilution necessary to satisfy Groups 1 and 2 through stock issuance?
We're talking about very large numbers here: roughly the combined amount would be our (Group 1's) estimated per share recovery doubled (to pay off Group 2). All we know is Susman et al. will never let the FDIC off the hook without a guarantee of complete restitution as the FDIC is primarily responsible to us and can pay any amount. If the FDIC charges JPM with whatever it has to pay to us, that's JPM's problem; that and the Group 2 claims.
Re: Tema interesante
"does this give them an 'out' considering the deal can be modified at which time they can require JPM to pay up for correct valuation"
Yes, the FDIC will keep extending the settlement date until its liability to WMI is fully assessed, then, possibly without paying a penny, will tell JPM to give WMI that money/JPM stock (actually, the three parties will probably reach an agreement to do this) or the FDIC will threaten some nasty consequences. JPM really has no choice: the P&A is a fully-negotiated, validly executed agreement, which the FDIC can rescind unilaterally.
Susman can throw a wrinkle in this by demanding cash, which we know JPM doesn't have. That's what I would do, because if I were Willingham I'd rather have cash than JPM's stock, but that's just my view. I'd demand cash only and then wait for bidders like GS to show up. Remember: JPM's stock is like a voucher @ at company store; cash can buy everything; just remember what Buffett got out of GS in '08 for his $7 billion or so.
Re: Tema interesante
Imagine, two thieves break in a house, rob and then fire shots at the owner. Luckily, the owner survives.The news about the thieves with goods leaks out. The thieves know, they will be hunted down soon. Now what would they do? Can they simply in the dark, drop the goods at the door of the owner with some extra cash and expect owner to forget it? Or is it a better option to actually knock at the door, return the goods and ask for forgiveness and releases, being fully aware the cops are waiting inside the house and may simply hancuff them before owner has any thing to say about the crime?
JD and SB are in the similar situation. They robbed the WAMU shareholders, several shareholders lost the jobs and retirement and there were suicides. They with the help of co thieves like WGM, the noteholders , possibly TPG and others tried to KILL the EQUITY, the owners. The shots misfired. The news of theft is now known to every one. SB and JD have very few choices, do they simply leave the stolen goods at the door or knock the door, shake hands with equity, ask for forgiveness but risk being taken away in hand cuffs?
What would they do? What should they do? It is not about money any more. What will it take to make it all go away? That is the dilemma JD and SB are facing now. Please help JD and SB.
JPM y los 258 Billlones
** Washington Mutual Bank, FSB, Park City, UT was a subsidiary of Washington Mutual Bank, Henderson, NV. Therefore, "Assets Acquired" from Washington Mutual Bank, Henderson, NV represents the consolidated total assets purchased by JPMorgan Chase Bank, NA.
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/merger/2008/CloseBmerger.html
El informe completo: http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/merger/2008/Merger2008.pdf
JPIG adquirio $258,576,810,000 por solot $1,900,000,000. 136 veces lo que acordaron, en un instante, por las mejores partes del sexto Banco operativo más grande de Estados Unidos.
Who wouldn't make that deal?
How does fraudulent conveyance work again? Hmm, must be the reason why the FDIC worked so hard to change the rules this summer (so they can cover up their future thefts).
If you ask me, both JPIG and the FDIC are SCREWED
Re: JPM y los 258 Billlones
También hay gente que tiene Telefónicas desde los años 80 y no las suelta. No confundamos. Si las acciones estuvieran muy demandadas su precio estaría más arriba. Esto es de cajón. Seamos realistas.
A mí también me gustaría ver síntomas de mejoría en las preferentes y así entrar. No sigue uno la actualidad de WaMu sólo por diversión,... ¿no?
Saludos y suerte!!!
P.d: gracias por los enlaces Mr Simpson
Re: JPM y los 258 Billlones
BALTRA16
No estamos diciendo que las acciones están muy demandadas. Entiendo que lo que está pasando en este momento es que una gran cantidad de inversionistas no están interesados en vender a estos precios por varios motivos:
a) Compraron antes de la incautación y esperan poder recuperar ( no saben cuanto) si de la una solución faborable
b) Compraron después de la incautación a precios muy bajos y están dispuestos a esperar, conscientes de que si se logra demostrar los errores en la incautación podrían logar una gran inversión
c) Compraron después de la incautación ( a precios que están por encima de los actuales) y a lo mejor están esperando un repunte para recuperar el dinero invertido.