baski
06/05/14 19:12
Ha respondido al tema
Global X Uranium ETF USD (ISIN: US37950E2752)
Buenas tardes,
Un pequeño extracto de una entrevista a un analista sobre las razones de la extendida caída del precio del Uranio y sus previsiones a unos años vista.
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Given the long-depressed uranium price, is that going to extend the doldrums for the price?
Not necessarily. One of the impacts of the low price is that producers are beginning to shut down production. Some of the higher-cost operations, such as Paladin Energy Ltd.'s (PDN:TSX; PDN:ASX) Kayelekera project in Malawi, are being put onto care and maintenance. No new significant projects are being pushed forward at the moment for production. In this case, the knock-on effect of low prices is a reduced supply outlook.
Despite Japan, we do still have a nuclear industry that's growing, driven mainly by China, but also by some of the Middle Eastern countries and a handful of other places. That does lead to future demand growth for natural uranium. On my estimates we end up in a situation where supply is insufficient to meet demand in 2018, and it enters a fairly deep and sustained deficit thereafter.
There are some positive price indicators. Last year the long-term contracting market was extremely quiet. Normally you'd see around 170 million pounds (170 Mlb) of uranium signed into long-term contracts, but the volume was only about 20 Mlb last year. Utilities appear to be pretty well covered for near-term requirements, and they were putting off signing contracts as a result. This year, the amount of contracting activity has picked up. A number of U.S. utilities in particular are coming to the market looking for long-term contracts, which suggests that they are beginning to feel that they are less well covered than they perhaps were at this time last year. It's interesting to note that they are typically looking for new contracts on a fixed-price basis, which suggests that utilities think that prices probably have to rise at some point in the future as well.
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Un saludo.