no se cualquier cosa la verdad es que no puedo entender porque baja solo se me ocurre que es hungria y al no tener la moneda euro pueda estar a punto de una devaluacion de su moneda como solucion a su crisis economica y eso repercuta en la cotizacion pero nuestra deuda senior es en euros (es XS) si puede en los resultados ya que alconvertirlos en euros seria a peor y le costaria mas pagar cupon y posteriormente amortizar solo se me ocurre eso
Estos bonos son de Magyar Telecom BV (Holanda)/Invitel. La empresa de telecomunicaciones se llama Magyar Telekom Group. (Con k en lugar de c).
He mirado el balance del primer semestre de Magyar Telecom BV (Invitel) y da pérdidas. Solfam, mirate el link. english.invitel.hu/.../Analyst%20presentation%20... -
Tu entiendes mejor que yo los balances.
Aquí hay algo que no me queda claro, empezando por quien es la empresa de telecomunicaciones y quien es el que emite y garantiza los bonos. Hay que estudiarlo un poco más.
Moody's downgrades Invitel's CFR to Caa1 from B3, outlook remains negative
Global Credit Research - 17 Sep 2012
London, 17 September 2012 -- Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded the corporate family rating (CFR) and probability of default rating (PDR) of Magyar Telecom B.V. ("Invitel") to Caa1 from B3. Moody's also downgraded the rating on the senior secured notes due 2016 to Caa1 from B3. The outlook remains negative.
The downgrade of Invitel's ratings reflects (i) the accelerating decline in voice revenues, Invitel's highest margin product, to the benefit of mobile substitution and triple-play cable operators which continues to put pressure on Invitel's EBITDA margins (ii) weaker than expected growth in the internet segment which fails to generate enough positive momentum to counter the drop in ARPU (iii) an uncertain macro-economic environment (iv) aggressive policy-making exemplified by the previous crisis tax levied on telecom operators and the recently announced telecom tax which will be fully borne by the company (iv) expectations that continued negative free cash-flow might leave the company with a weak liquidity profile which makes the sustainability of the current capital structure uncertain in the medium-term.
Invitel's Caa1 CFR is supported by the company's (i) leading position as the second-largest fixed-line telecommunications service provider in Hungary; (ii) sound profitability levels with EBITDA margin between 40%-45%; (iii) long dated maturity profile as the company has no scheduled debt repayment before 2016.
The downgrade mainly captures the continuing weak profile of Invitel's liquidity profile with the company fully reliant on current cash positions to absorb its negative free cash flow. In addition, capex spending, although somewhat discretionary, is needed to upgrade networks and/or maintain market position in certain regions and cannot be sustainably halted. At the current pace of cash-burning, Moody's believes the company could be left with minimal liquidity by the end of 2013. The current capital structure hence appears untenable in its current state absent any financial shareholder support, which, until now, has not been expressed.
The downgrade also reflects Invitel's performance in the first half of 2012 which shows no halting of the declining trends observed in voice revenues with this segment recording a 22% drop in residential and 7% in corporate revenues (both in constant currency terms) in H1 2012 vs. H1 2011. In addition to fixed to mobile substitution and the bundled telephone offers from cable operators, the increasingly tough competitive environment has also driven prices down as clients look for best-value alternatives in a tough domestic economic climate.
In addition, the Hungarian Forint (Invitel's main operating currency), which declined to a record low at the end of 2011, has continued to be volatile in the first half of 2012 and future currency movements remain largely unpredictable. This is compounded by an aggressive strategy from the government to impose taxes on the telecommunication industry. First, since 2010, through a three year "crisis-tax" on the operators which cost Invitel EUR10.9million in 2011 and now through a "Telecom Tax" based on end-user traffic. Although this is in essence a consumer tax, the company has decided not to pass on the increased costs as it fears the consequences on churn would outweigh the margin benefits.
The negative outlook reflects Moody's views that (i) the current capital structure is under pressure given the lack of long term liquidity solution and the lacklustre performance expectations (ii) the competitive and macro-economic landscapes will continue to put pressure on Invitel's end-customers and hence limit a potential recovery (iii) the cash-flow profile of the issuer will, eventually, be constrained by the required continued investment in its network infrastructure.
What Could Change the Rating -- Up
Whilst Invitel's ratings are currently constrained by the company's limited financial flexibility, its rating outlook could stabilise following (i) tangible signs of a stabilising market environment; (ii) meaningful growth in Internet and broadband activity; (iii) sustained free cash flow generation; and/or (iv) substantial cash injection from the sponsor to stabilise Invitel's long term liquidity profile.
What Could Change the Rating -- Down
Negative ratings pressure would arise following (i) no apparent resolution over the currently weak liquidity profile of the company or explicit support from the sponsor; (ii) further reduction in the company's EBITDA and free cash flow generation.
The principal methodology used in rating Magyar Telecom B.V. was the Global Telecommunications Industry Methodology published in December 2010. Other methodologies used include Loss Given Default for Speculative-Grade Non-Financial Companies in the U.S., Canada and EMEA published in June 2009. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
Magyar Telekom (hija de Deutschen Telekom) y Magyar Telecom B.V. (madre de Invitel Zrt) no tienen nada que ver, menos que son competencia en el sector de telecomunicaciones ungaro.
Invitel es mucho más pequeno y número #2 en Ungría. Solo están en fija y no en móvil.