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Las pelmas del Crack (XXII)

WORLD 18/5/2018


De James Picerno


The U.S. could face a recession by next year or in 2020 as a growing threat of inflation forces the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more quickly than anticipated, Colorado Springs economist Tatiana Bailey said Tuesday.
Colorado Politics, Feb. 28, 2018

A recession will hit the US economy next year, warns David Vickers, multi-asset portfolio manager at Russell Investments.
Morningstar, Feb. 26, 2018

Hedge fund billionaire: 70% chance of recession before 2020 election
CNN Money, Feb. 22, 2018

Prognosticator Alan Beaulieu of ITR Economics was in Bend on Thursday to tell a rapt audience when to expect the next downturn. Based on his New Hampshire firm’s proprietary leading indicator, he thinks the next recession will hit late this year and last into the first half of 2019.
The Bulletin, Feb. 8, 2018

Andrew Staples, director of the Economist Intelligence Unit for Southeast Asia, said his firm expects the U.S. economy to slip into a technical recession in early 2020.
CNBC, Jan. 23, 2018

The Trump Recession is coming… History suggests that the next recession is not far off.
David Von Drehle, Washington Post, Jan. 5, 2018

A financial warning sign that preceded the last seven recessions is about to signal again, and that could mean a recession in 2018 is coming…
Money Morning, Nov. 30, 2017

Guggenheim’s Model Points to Recession in Late 2019 or 2020
Guggenheim Investments, Nov. 29, 2017

Wells Fargo formula shows recession looming in next 18 months
Orange County Register, Nov. 22, 2017

There is 69.2 Percent Chance of Recession
Colorado Biz, Oct. 22, 2017

Marathon Asset Management boss Bruce Richards is gearing up for the next global recession, which he reckons could be less than two years away.
The Economic Times, Oct. 4, 2017

Earlier this year, FS Insider discussed a new machine-learning “forecasting engine” developed by San-Diego-based Intensity Corporation used for economic and revenue forecasting, large-scale investing, supply chain optimization, and a wide range of other areas. The current forecast their platform is giving for a US recession is June 2019…
Financial Sense, Aug. 18, 2017

But there is another recession in our future (there is always another recession), which I think will ensue by the end of 2018. And it’s going to be at least as bad as the last one was in terms of the global pain it causes.
John Mauldin via Forbes, Jul. 27, 2017


Predecir una recesión bordea lo imposible. A pesar de ello multitud de expertos saltan a los medios a avisadores que esta, está al caer. Como los ángeles avisadores del apocalipsis, que todavía coronan algunos edificios de la antigüedad. Les encanta esta pose. Debe ser como una adicción que no les deja vivir en paz.

La táctica que emplean ahora es dar mucho plazo a que esta caída se produzca. Han aprendido algo. Si avisan digamos de aquí a un mes o una semana no funciona. Ahora el apocalipsis va a llegar de aquí a uno o dos años, en cualquier momento.  Lo importante según ellos es que llegara.

Para eso se podrían ir a un jardín publico , subirse a un pedestal de una estatua y gritar  "LLOVERÁ".

Parece que se han dado cuenta, que predecir una recesión digamos de aquí a dos meses es imposible. Esto pasa por que los factores que influyen en una recesión y sus complejas interconexiones para crear una caída del mercado de valores son complicados de tratar. Esto los hace imposible de modelizarlos para encontrar un resultado para dos meses.

Un método más riguroso y aproximativo es el de analizar datos que se producen semanalmente y con ellos poder sacar una estimación de RIESGO. Estamos hablando de cosas distintas. Un riesgo para un tiempo presente, una cuantificación de esto. Este proceso obliga a seguir grandes datos periódicamente.

Claro que lloverá, claro que siempre va a haber una nube o una recesión en el horizonte.  No tiene ningún merito anunciar esa memez.

Aquí lo relevante, lo que interesa es CUANDO. Y después de esto, estaría bien que informarse cuál es su modelo de riesgo para soltar la memez, y ya de paso llevar un computo del resultado de la trompeta avisando. Hacer un ranking con esto.

Aquí aporto un estudio, colgado hace un año, cuando el S&P 500 estaba un 11% mas bajo que ahora, sobre la fiabilidad de las predicciones en un tiempo digamos que extenso. 


From a probability and statistics perspective, it is not interesting to explore the consensus average price level (so shown as Not Meaningful in the table above), but rather just the consensus % change. And of course, on a continuous-geometric basis. These predicted % changes shown in today’s Barron’s are likely a little less than what the strategists’ originally envisaged, given the quick upward bounce in prices, occurring in the background as these forecasts were developed.

The other most important thing anyway for you to see here is -that among only 10 strategists and despite the lower bias described from fast moving prices during forecast formation- none of them still hold a negative view for 2017! And therein lies a prodigious irony, since nearly 1/3 of the years -in the past two decades- have been negative (with average return in those years of -18%). Think about that for a moment as you consider the risk of the stock market. And that’s more negative years than most people, including these self-described “investment cognoscenti”, expect.

What’s troubling in relation to that is this in those same nearly 2 decades of forecast data, only 8% of individual projections were negative. This clearly shows how bullish-biased they are (as if a typical 9% annual prediction versus a 4.5% actual return wasn’t enough!), but the probability information given will still take this dismaying performance to the higher level.

We should appreciate that an investor is likely to be less concerned about Wall Street forecasters being conservative, as they will be concerned about being told that the markets will simply rise double digits’ percent (and then instead be treated to a decline of roughly that same amount!) And yes, that happens.

So we know there is some relevant asymmetry in what investors righteously care about. Even without asking for this explicitly, investors are seeking to manage this frank risk with professional insights. Though no insights are to be found. As a case in point, in the 1/3 of all the years coinciding to when the markets dropped, take a guess at how many of those years did the consensus price estimate also show a drop?

A spectacular ZERO.


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  1. #2


    En relación, al ultimo aviso USA que se cita, que los altavoces aquí, nos avisaron reiteradamente, lo que venia, por que venia la subida de la inflación a finales de Enero. Vease

    "The U.S. could face a recession by next year or in 2020 as a growing threat of inflation forces the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more quickly than anticipated, Colorado Springs economist Tatiana Bailey said Tuesday.
    Colorado Politics, Feb. 28, 2018"

    Dar el dato, que la ultima lectura de la inflación, no da para que la Fed este obligada a subir los tipos interés. Si esto iba a pasar y llevaba como consecuencia la recesión, la inevitable recesión.

    Ahora que?

    Va a salir en el Colorado Politics, que eso ha durado dos meses? Van los altavoces de aquí a cambiar de aviso apocaliptico?

    Apostaría a que no.

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