Re: Pulso de mercado
No lo ven claro ni los italianos...xd:)
Center-Left On Track To Win, But Uncertainty Remains: As Italy prepares to vote in its general election on February 24-25, our Citi Research election model projects that Pier Luigi Bersani will be the next prime minister of Italy. But the election will fail to resolve political uncertainty. Here, as in recent eurozone elections, we expect the pro-Europe, pro-austerity mainstream will secure an electoral victory, but the new government's will and capacity for reform will be constrained by growing popular resistance to austerity and resistance from both right and left in parliament.
· Bersani Maintains Poll Lead: Bersani's center-left coalition looks most likely to win a majority in the Camera, or lower house of parliament. Bersani has led in the polls for more than a year. With the Italian system's porcellum win bonus for the largest party, our model points to a 94% probability of a Bersani victory in the Camera.
· But He Needs Il Professore in the Senate: In the Senate, however, Bersani will likely need the support of Mario Monti's centrist coalition to form a government. We project that Bersani wins 156 seats in the upper house, +/- 10 seats, while Monti wins 26, +/- 3. Running the probabilities, we see a 43% chance of Bersani winning the Senate on his own, but an additional 50% chance if Monti's coalition goes along with him – a total of 93%. The Italian system requires governments to hold the confidence of both chambers of parliament, not merely the lower house.
· No Political Resurrection for Berlusconi, Despite Pundit Talk: The punditocracy's focus on il ritorno di Berlusconi is premature, in our view. Silvio Berlusconi's center-right coalition has trailed since August 2011 and, even with the recent regression to the mean, the latest Senate polls don't support a Berlusconi victory there. The probability of a hung parliament – where Berlusconi wins a majority or is able to deny a joint Bersani-Monti coalition a majority – is projected at only 7%.
· Projected Election Outcome Short-Term Positive for Markets: We think the scenario projected by our model is the optimal result for political stability short term, and would see Brussels and Berlin breathe a sigh of relief. The risks of large-scale political uncertainty appear minimal. Still the election raises bigger questions about Italy's austerity-averse and increasingly euroskeptic Vox Populi. Typically, Italian governments take 3-4 weeks to form, and this period could feature headline risks as parties try to strengthen their bargaining position with less-than-conciliatory rhetoric.
· Risks to Our Assessment: The biggest risk is if Monti refuses to form a coalition with Bersani, forcing Italy back to the path of political uncertainty. Smaller risks include slippery coalitions, a comprehensive failure of the polls, and a better-than-expected performance by Antonio Ingroia's Civil Revolution coalition.
Fuente: citigroup
