#21481
Re: Novavax (NVAX): Un Nuevo Comienzo
Para los que están nerviosos por el precio. Sí, la empresa ha tardado y eso ha costado un montón pero creo que vale bastante más. Si ejecuta y hay nuevos pedidos.
Otro momento distinto, pero buen post de wwilson_2003 en IV:
"Manipulation is one thing. But there is year-end profit taking and institutions doing business as usual.
This thread starts with something like, "Why are we not going straight up with these authorizations?". These milestones have been so elusive and frustrating that we begin to think they have become the end game for this investment. Of course, it's not.
Look at Moderna experience here. USA authorization approx Dec 18, 2020. EMA authorization approx Jan 6, 2021.
Approx Dec 10 they hit $170.
Dec 18 authorization gave them a high of $145.
5 trading days later they were $111.
Day of EMA authorization they hit $123 and closed at $116.
In March they were $118.
They gradually moved up to reach $200 in June, $300 in July, $400 in August.
So MRNA was dealing with a year end with profits, institutional maneuvering, and possibly manipulation. But I think the overriding issue was the investors/institutions wanting to see MRNA actually make it happen - produce and deliver.
This need to produce and deliver is much more important for NVAX than it was for MRNA due to the egg-on-face delays. They seem to be riding the same wave that MRNA caught 1 year ago. It's SHOW ME. Stan can go on TV and do a wonderful job (hypothetically, you know, not all Tommy Chonged) and the doubt won't go away. We are good at imagining them producing, but we have not seen it (hundreds of millions shipped, on specification) yet.
They have some work to do and maybe we need to latch on to yet more patience (I see you have). That said (with some difficulty), an India authorization looks to be close, and this is a big positive surprise. Also, the vaccines seem to have dodged the bullet of obsolescence, so no crushing do-over is required. Who is now waiting for the USA FDA? Is it UK, Canada, Australia, or does the EMA change anything with those 3? Unless these others are waiting for action from the USA, I don't see much importance for FDA authorization. There is a $132 million fee at stake - that is it. They will eventually get paid for the work at Fuji Texas and eventually deliver the doses. Praha needs to step up."
Otro momento distinto, pero buen post de wwilson_2003 en IV:
"Manipulation is one thing. But there is year-end profit taking and institutions doing business as usual.
This thread starts with something like, "Why are we not going straight up with these authorizations?". These milestones have been so elusive and frustrating that we begin to think they have become the end game for this investment. Of course, it's not.
Look at Moderna experience here. USA authorization approx Dec 18, 2020. EMA authorization approx Jan 6, 2021.
Approx Dec 10 they hit $170.
Dec 18 authorization gave them a high of $145.
5 trading days later they were $111.
Day of EMA authorization they hit $123 and closed at $116.
In March they were $118.
They gradually moved up to reach $200 in June, $300 in July, $400 in August.
So MRNA was dealing with a year end with profits, institutional maneuvering, and possibly manipulation. But I think the overriding issue was the investors/institutions wanting to see MRNA actually make it happen - produce and deliver.
This need to produce and deliver is much more important for NVAX than it was for MRNA due to the egg-on-face delays. They seem to be riding the same wave that MRNA caught 1 year ago. It's SHOW ME. Stan can go on TV and do a wonderful job (hypothetically, you know, not all Tommy Chonged) and the doubt won't go away. We are good at imagining them producing, but we have not seen it (hundreds of millions shipped, on specification) yet.
They have some work to do and maybe we need to latch on to yet more patience (I see you have). That said (with some difficulty), an India authorization looks to be close, and this is a big positive surprise. Also, the vaccines seem to have dodged the bullet of obsolescence, so no crushing do-over is required. Who is now waiting for the USA FDA? Is it UK, Canada, Australia, or does the EMA change anything with those 3? Unless these others are waiting for action from the USA, I don't see much importance for FDA authorization. There is a $132 million fee at stake - that is it. They will eventually get paid for the work at Fuji Texas and eventually deliver the doses. Praha needs to step up."
