La actividad de los mercados está siendo escasa este verano y especialmente durante la semana en curso, última de agosto y previa al día del trabajador USA motivo por el que el lunes no habrá mercados y hoy viernes sólo abrirán media sesión.
A menos que la revisión del dato de PIB USA del segundo trimestre, que será publicado hoy a las 14:30 hora española, desvele alguna sorpresa, la actividad tenderá a decaer aún más en las sesiones de hoy y mañana. El consenso de analistas espera una revisión del dato neutra y que no altere el 4% de crecimiento preliminar anunciado el pasado mes.
A pesar de tratarse de un dato robusto, el crecimiento sigue siendo lento y después del traspiés del primer trimestre, aunque los otros tres del año alcancen el 4%, el dato final de PIB en el conjunto del año quedará en el 2.28%. La recuperación económica permanece lenta, atascada y consumiendo cada vez más dinero, deuda, para su consecución. Aún así, se trata de la recuperación más lenta desde los años ´50. Leer más
"Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the second quarter of 2014, according to the advance"The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.”
“inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate.”
“even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.”
“readings on housing activity — a sector that has been recovering since 2011 — have remained disappointing so far this year and will bear watching”.
"los primeros cuatro meses del año, las ventas de las casas dentro del 1% más caras, con precio superior a los $1.67 millones, han crecido un 21%… adicional al +35% que subieron en 2013. Por contra, las ventas del otro 99% de viviendas han caído un 7.6% en el año en curso".
“All twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic activity continued to expand since the previous report. The pace of economic growth was characterized as moderate in New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco, while the remaining Districts reported modest expansion. Compared to the previous reporting period, Boston and Richmond noted a slightly slower pace of growth. Most Districts were optimistic about the outlook for growth.”
“The unemployment rate dropped to 6.3 percent in April and remained at that level in May. However, the labor force participation rate also declined in April and then held steady in May, while the employment-to-population ratio remained flat”
“Consumer price inflation picked up in recent months, while measures of longer-run inflation expectations remained stable”. “Increases in measures of labor compensation remained modest.”
“While the current asset purchase program is not on a preset course, participants generally agreed that if the economy evolved as they anticipated, the program would likely be completed later this year”.“If the economy progresses about as the Committee expects, warranting reductions in the pace of purchases at each upcoming meeting, this final reduction would occur following the October meeting”.
“The guidance continued to emphasize that the Committee’s decisions about how long to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate would depend on its assessment of actual and expected progress toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation…“The Committee again stated that it currently anticipated that it likely would be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends”.
“Signs of increased risk-taking were viewed by some participants as an indication that market participants were not factoring in sufficient uncertainty about the path of the economy and monetary policy,“
“where appropriate, supervisory measures should be applied to address excessive risk-taking and associated financial imbalances. At the same time, it was noted that monetary policy needed to continue to promote the favorable financial conditions required to support the economic expansion.”
“Alan Greenspan, año 2000: “So long as we recognize the risks and insist on good risk-management system, and so long as supervision moves-as it has-from balance sheet analysis to a review, evaluation, and criticism of risk management systems, economic growth is, I suggest, enhanced by the kinds of financial innovation that technology and deregulation are now producing.”
“Our assessment is that this looks to be a very orderly and moderate kind of cooling.”
“Our assessment is that there’s not much indication at this point that subprime mortgage issues will spread into the broader mortgage market, which still seems to be healthy. And the lending side of that still seems to be healthy.”
“The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.” … cuando la recesión ya estaba en marcha!”
The world’s aggregate supplyof capital, labor, raw materials and most everything else is far above its aggregate demand.The result is persistently low prices.
Una vez que esto se rompa, por favor díganme, ¿quién absorberá toda la oferta?
El escenario técnico del mercado de acciones es realmente interesante. Leer más
Mientras el índice registra máximos históricos, la media diaria de volumen, de 20 sesiones -línea roja del cuadro inferior, de volumen- ha alcanzado mínimos históricos de su serie, desde 2004.
En renta fija también se alcanzaron niveles extremos en la sesión de ayer, hasta el punto que los tipos a 10 años del bono español se situaron en el 2.58%, frente al 2.61% de los emitidos por el Tesoro americano, aberrante pero cierto.
Mr. Chairman, at the present session of Congress we have been dealing with emergency situations. We have been dealing with the effect of things rather than with the cause of things……Mr. Chairman, we have in this country one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Banks. The Federal Reserve Board, a Government board, has cheated the Government of the United States and the people of the United States out of enough money to pay the national debt.The depredations and iniquities of the Federal Reserve Board has cost this country enough money to pay the national debt several times over.This evil institution has impoverished and ruined the people of the United States, has bankrupted itself, and has practically bankrupted our Government. It has done this through the defects of the law under which it operates, through the maladministration of that law by the Federal Reserve Board, and through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it”.
Analista independiente CEFA Certified European Financial Analyst Miembro del Instituto Español de Analistas Financieros