Continue in Spain, the worst option for the Catalan economy 2030

A European study explores what would happen in cases of separation agreed, unilateral separation and continuity

The independence of Catalonia is the most positive for the economy of the future of Catalonia. Whether there is a solution agreed with Spain and finally if there is a unilateral separation, the economic situation in Catalonia in the long run would be better than the option of continuity. This is the conclusion of a study conducted jointly by the CIDOB (Barcelona Centre for International Affairs) and CEPS (Centre for European Policy Studies), which was presented this morning at the headquarters of the European Parliament in Brussels. Despite the positive outlook provided for the independence, the report also finds that the separation agreed not generate uncertainties and risks during the early years, arising from membership in the European Union. Yet, it is expected that the worst possible option is to continue in Catalonia Spain. The study finds that long-term economic and financial supposed suffocation.

The aim of this work, which also have collaborated ISIS -Istituto Studi di Integrazione dei Sistemi for the Rome- and E3-modeling laboratory of the Polytechnic University of Athens, is projected in As part of the 2030 macroeconomic effects of a possible secession of Catalonia and the future relationship with Spain and the whole of the EU. It is called, in English, "Scenarios of Macro-economic Development for Catalonia on Horizon 2030. Economic effects of a potential secession of Catalonia from Spain and paths for integration with the EU."

The study presents data justifying that Catalonia has benefited more if agreed secession. 'In quantitative terms experienced an increase in GDP of 110.000 billion for the period 2015-30; while the option of unilateral independence would be increased for the same period of 67.000 million. Thus, in 2030 the unemployment rate would be 3.1 percentage points lower in the case of secession agreed and 3.2% for unilateral secession in relation to the reference scenario ', ie if Catalonia continues as an autonomous region within Spain.

Representatives presented the study of institutions that have carried out, which are Rym Ayadi (CEPS), Carlo Sessa (ISIS), Leonidas Paroussos (E3 modeling) and Marc Gafarot (CIDOB). The event was also supported by the ALDE group MEP Ramon Tremosa and MEPs from the Greens / EFA Ernest Maragall and Josep Maria Terricabras