Portfolio Additions
Company Name Symbol Industry Market Cap Date Added Last Trade
Threshold THLD MED-BIOMED/G 322 03/14/12 6.82
Zacks Investment Research
Homerun Investor membership acaba de anadir THLD a su investment portfolio
Posted 03/13/2012
By Brian Bolan
Once again a snap back really helped us, as we clearly did better than the broader markets. We had 15 stocks up and only 4 stocks lower for the day with a few strong performances and nothing really pulling us down. We are adding a new name, and I think this one could be a big hit for us.
Threshold Pharmaceuticals, Inc (THLD) is the new addition to our Home Run Investor Portfolio. I believe this stock could be a real home run, maybe even a grand slam for us. I have been watching the stock lately, and the strong volume makes me believe that we will not be moving the market here, so I suggest buying shares up to and including $7.00. Obviously, you want to buy this lower and closer to the closing price... so try putting in orders at $6.90 or $6.95. I am hoping for some weakness at the open tomorrow, so that should help our cause. I will be adding it at the average of the open and the close tomorrow.
Why are we buying a stock that was basically $2 for the last four years? Well to put it plainly, a breakthrough and future catalysts that will reward shareholders.
TH302 is something you will hear a lot about from me and from others, and its the real deal for THLD. TH302 is a pancreatic cancer drug that has had some excellent Phase 2 trial results. In a recent presentation at Cowen & CO, I heard some of the high level results of the trial. A detailed speech is planned for April 2 in Chicago at the American Association for Cancer Research. This is one of our catalyst events, as I believe that this will move the stock.
TH302 targets an unmet need in clinical research and seems to have multiple treatment possibilities. Merck did a deal with THLD that makes the positive clinic results mean something and adds a layer of protection. MRK paid THLD $25 million upfront and after some near term milestones, there will be more payments (think stock catalyst) and down the road there will be payments of more than $200 million (think massive catalyst).
THLD also get MRK to pay 70% of the R&D costs for TH302, which means that the company will be able to continue to grow and should see costs come down substantially. This should drive earnings higher, and I believe that this story is more about 2013 earnings. Right now, the consensus is calling for $0.04 in 2013 earnings with a loss planned for 2012.
Finally, there is a saying with Bio-Tech companies... buy Phase 2 and sell Phase 3. Much like a buy the rumor sell the news type phrase, buy Phase 2 means buy a bio tech when something is coming out of phase 1 and going into phase 2 when there is much promise. Phase 3 is pretty much the time when the drug get ready to hit the market, so it’s the news. THLD has several drugs in Phase 1, so there is some long term prospects here.
So here is one concern with this stock... it may not move up like we may expect other stocks. It may have a few catalysts for growth like the April conference, some earnings and the announcements of MRK payments, but it is likely this stock may find a home and sit at it for months at a time... just like it did at $2 for the last several years. I think that this story will get played a bit more and other analysts will pick up coverage over time, so that should help. But do be prepared for a potential long sitting stock.