andromeda12
16/02/12 20:09
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Bancos europeos y sus clases de titulos que pudieran verse rebajado hasta grado de no inversion
Austria:
BAWAG dated sub debt remains on watch down from Baa3
AUSTVB 1 notch … dated sub debt at Baa3
Denmark:
Denmarks Skibskredit 5 notches … senior at A2 (to Ba1)
Dankske Bank 3 notches … junior sub at Baa2 and hybrids at Baa3
DLR Credit 3 notches … senior at Baa1 (to Ba1)
Jyske Bank 3 notches … junior sub at Baa2 and hybrids at Baa3
Nykredit Bank 3 notches … junior sub at Baa1 and hybrids at Baa2
Spar Nord Bank 3 notches … senior at Baa2
Sydbank 3 notches … junior sub at Baa2 and hybrids at Baa3
Netherlands:
SNS Bank 3 notches … senior at Baa1; dated sub at Baa2
Friesland Bank 3 notches … dated sub at Baa1
Finland:
Sampo Bank 3 notches … hybrids at Baa3
France:
BNP Paribas 2 notches … hybrids at Baa3
Credit Agricole 2 notches … hybrids at Baa3
HSBC France 2 notches … junior sub at Baa2
Oddo & Cie 2 notches … senior at Baa2; subs and hybrids as well
Banque Monetaire et Fin. 2 notches … hybrids at Baa3 (BPCE Group)
BFCM 2 notches … hybrids at Baa3
Credit Immobilier 4 notches … junior sub at A3 (to Ba1)
Germany:
Deutsche Bank 2 notches ... hybrids at Baa2
Dt. Postbank 2 notches … sub debt at Baa2
DZ Bank … 1 notch … some hybrids at Baa3
Nord/LB (NDB) 2 notches … sub debt at Baa2
Bremer Landesbank 2 notches … sub debt at Baa2
Unicredit Bank AG (HVB) 2 notches … sub debt at Baa2
Ireland:
Ulster Bank (RBS) 1 notch … sub debt at Baa3
Italy:
Banca delle Marce 3 notches … senior at Baa1; sub Baa2; junior sub Baa3
MONTE 2 notches … sub at Baa2
Banca Pop Alto Adige 3 notches … senior at Baa1; sub Baa2; junior sub Baa3
Banca Pop di Cividale 4 notches … senior at Baa1; sub Baa2; junior sub Baa3
Banca Pop di Marostica 3 notches … senior at Baa2
Banca Pop di Spoleto 4 notches … senior at Baa1
Banca Sella Holding 2 notches … sub debt and Tier III at Baa2
Banca Tercas 2 notches … senior at Baa3
Banco Popolare 2 notches … senior at Baa2; sub Baa3; Tier III at Baa3
Banca Italease 1 notch … senior at Baa3
Cassa di Risp di Bolzano 3 notches … senior at Baa2; sub and junior sub Baa3
Cassa di Risp Chieti 2 notches … senior at Baa3
Credito Valtellinese 4 notches … senior at Baa1; sub Baa2, junior sub Baa3
Iccrea BancaImpresa 1 notch … sub debt and hybrids at Baa3
Unicredit 2 notches … junior sub at Baa2
Unione di Banche Italiane 3 notches … sub debt at Baa1, junior sub Baa2, T3 Baa1
Unipol Banca 4 notches … senior at Baa2
Norway:
DNB Bank 2 notches … hybrids at Baa3
Portugal:
Banco Santander Totta 2 notches … senior at Baa2; sub at Baa3
Spain:
BBVA 3 notches … hybrids at Baa2
CaixaBank 3 notches … hybrids at Baa3
La Caixa 3 notches … senior at Baa1
Bankinter 3 notches … sub debt at Baa1
Banco Popular Espanol no guidance … sub debt at Baa2
Caja Rural de Granada 3 notches … senior at Baa1
Banca March 3 notches … senior at Baa1; junior sub at Baa2
Banco Sabadell no guidance … sub debt at Baa3
Ibercaja 2 notches … sub debt at Baa3
Liberbank 2 notches … sub debt at Baa3
Cajamar Caja Rural 1 notch … senior at Baa3
Banco CEISS no guidance … senior at Baa3
Lico Leasing 1 notch … senior at Baa3
Sweden:
Svenska Handelsbanken 2 notches ... hybrids at Baa2
Swedbank 1 notch … junior sub at Baa3
UK:
Lloyds Banking Group 2 notches … sub debt at Baa3
Lloyds TSB Bank plc 2 notches … sub debt at Baa2; junior sub at Baa3
HBOS 2 notches … sub debt at Baa3
Bank of Scotland plc 2 notches … sub debt at Baa2; junior sub at Baa3
Royal Bk of Scotland plc 1 notch … sub debt at Baa3
Natwest 1 notch … sub debt at Baa3
Barclays plc (HoldCo) 2 notches … sub debt at Baa2
Barclays Bank plc (OpCo) 2 notches … junior sub at Baa2; hybrids at Baa2/Baa3
As mentioned, the list above indicates banks and classes of securities which might cross over into the non-IG space. However, the overall list of rating reviews is larger still with the following notching guidance:
1 notch:
Banco BPI, Banco Espirito Santo, Banco Italease, Banesto ,BANIF - Banco International do Funchal, Banque et Caisse d'Epargne de l'Etat, BCP, Caixa Economica Montepio Geral, Caixa Gral de Depositos, Cajamar Caja Rural, DZ Bank, Espirito Santo Financial Group, HESLAN, Iccrea BancaImpresa, ING, Intesa Sanpaolo, LBBW, Locindus, Nordea,RBS, RZB, SEB, SocGen, Swedbank, WGZ Bank
2 notches:
ABN Amro, Banca Carige, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Banca Sella, Banca Tercas, Banco Popolare, Banco Santander Totta, Barclays, BFCM, BNP Paribas, BPCE, Bremer Landesbank, Cassa di Risparmio della Provincia di Chieti, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Credit Mutuel Arkea, DekaBank, Deutsche Bank, DNB Bank, Dt. Hypothekenbank, Dt. Postbank, HSBC, HSBC, Ibercaja, ING Diba, KBC, LaSer Cofinoga, Liberbank, Lico Leasing, Lloyds Group, Nord/LB, Oddo & Cie, Pojhola Bank, Rabobank, Santander, Svenska Handelsbanken, Unicredit
3 notches:
Banca della Marca Credito Cooperativo, Banca March, Banca Monastier e del Sile, Banca Popolare Alto Adige-Suedtiroler Volksbank, Banca Popolare di Marostica, Banco Cooperativo Espanol, Bancoa, Bankinter, BBVA, BNL, CaixaBank, Caja Rural de Granada, Caja Rural de Navarra, Cassa di Risparmio di Bolzano-Suedtiroler Sparkasse, Cassa di Risparmio di Parma e Piacenza, CECA (Confederacion Espanola de Cajas de Ahorro), Credit Suisse, Credito Emiliano, Dankse, Erste Bank, Eurohypo, Friesland Bank, Jyske Bank, Landshypotek, Leaseplan, Nykredit, Ringkjobing Landobank, Sampo Bank, SNS Bank, Spar Nord Bank, Sydbank, UBS, Unione di Bance Italiane
4 notches:
Banca Popolare di Cividale, Caisse Centrale du Credit Immobilier de France, Credito Valtellinese, Unipol Banca
5 notches:
Denmarks Skibskredit
No notching guidance:
Banco CAM, Banco CEISS, Banco Pastor, Banco Popular Espanol, Banco Sabadell Unicaja Banco
Short-term ratings
Further, the likely downgrades mean, that a whole bunch of banks will see their short term ratings lowered as well (which could impact their short-term market funding negatively). The following will likely lose their P-1 rating:
Banca Popolare Friuladria, Banco Cooperativo Espanol, Banco Popular Espanol, Banesto, Bankinter, Barclays plc (Holding …. Bank affirmed at P-1), BBVA, BNL, Bremer Landesbank, Caisse Centrale du Credit Immobilier de France, CaixaBank, Cassa di Risparmio di Parma e Piacenza, CECA, Commerzbank, Danske Bank, Dt. Postbank, Erste Bank, Eurohypo, ICO (Instituto de Credito Official) … direct downgrade to P-2, Intesa Sanpaolo, Jyske Bank, KBC, LaSer Cofinoga, LBBW, Lloyds, Nord/LB, Nykredit, RBS, Sampo Bank, Swedbank, Sydbank, UBS, Unicaja, Unicredit.
Otto Dichtl ** 16th February 2012 **