La teoría está muy bien, pero Bestinver tiene que ser más humilde en sus declaraciones. Es díficil batir al mercado y fácil caer en "value traps"
Por cierto, este programa, accesible a través de videopodcasts está muy bien. Hace poco salió David Dreman, etc, ves a los mitos hablando sobre temas de actualidad.
A continuación las declaraciones de Whitney Tilson. La mayor participación de su fondo es precisamente Berkshire Hathaway.
Consuelo Mack WealthTrack - Original Air Date: December 7, 2007
WHITNEY TILSON: And Mr. Market is very, very efficient. It's easy to point back to certain bubbles. And in hindsight, always the people that are doing this in hindsight saying how irrational and inefficient the market is. But 90 percent of the time, the market's right. And so you know, every ten investments we look at that on first blush seem to be cheap, there's something there that we think, yeah, the market's probably right. We're trying to occasionally bet against the consensus where the market thinks something is worth X and we think it's worth 2X. So we call that a 50 cent dollar. It's trading at half its intrinsic value. And occasionally, we shoot for once a month, that one good investment idea. So we're not doing a lot of trading. And when we find those situations, we tend to swing hard. We do what Bill Miller calls time arbitrage, which is simply most investors, virtually all out, there are being graded and evaluated based on their monthly returns or quarterly returns relative to some benchmark. And that leads them to make very short term investment decisions. Often, the best bargains out there are ones where there is no short term visibility or short term catalyst. But you look out a couple years, and you have a pretty high degree of conviction that whatever is wrong with the company is going to be fixed. You just don't know when. But you're going to double your money. Maybe it'll take two years. Maybe it'll take five years. But either way, we're winning if we're right in that assessment.
