Fernando, por si sirve de ayuda aqui van los comentarios de Robert Rodriguez:
The Primary Reasons We Have Focused Our Investment on Oil Drilling Companies
Robert Rodriguez: It is impossible to know when a peak is reached until several years afterward. For example, depletion of the U.S. oil reserves was first signaled by the drop in yield to exploration in 1940, as measured by barrels per foot drilled. But with enhanced technology, oil production kept growing for another 30 years despite a deceleration in yields. But then the inevitable happened, production peaked in 1970, and it has declined ever since. Interestingly, 80% of the oil produced today flows from fields discovered before 1970, according to 13D Research, Inc. Even more alarming, the world industry is now producing approximately three times the volume of crude it is finding each year. In other words, at current levels of drilling for oil, we are using up and not replacing 67% of our oil consumption or about 55 million barrels per day. This last point is one of the primary reasons we have focused our investment on oil drilling companies because current levels of drilling will not sustain current production. Exploration and thereby drilling for oil must increase to keep production levels from declining over time.
The Change in Supply and Demand
Robert Rodriguez: Oil depletion is accelerating, as evidenced by existing field production declines. According to 13D Research, Inc., ExxonMobil estimated a few years ago that by 2015, because of depletion of existing fields and growth in demand, the petroleum industry needs to add 100 million barrels per day of production. This is about four times the current level of production being added. If correct, this should be a boom for the oil drilling industry. Even if we see little growth from current production levels, exploration activity will still need to increase substantially just to keep production constant. The leverage potential in the oil drilling business we’re invested in is very large. As demand for drilling rigs strengthens from already elevated levels, rig day-rates will likely rise and the incremental change will flow straight to the bottom line, with the growth in profits far above the growth in sales.
On the demand side, we are witnessing a major change, with the increasing demands from China and India . As of 2005, China ’s annual per capita consumption was estimated to be 1.8 barrels per person while India was at 0.9. By comparison, U.S. per capita consumption was 25.6 barrels. U.S. consumption has continued to increase despite the rise in oil prices. Even with the recent rise in gas prices above $3 per gallon, demand only flattened. In our opinion, for over thirty years, the U.S. has not had an energy policy, other than one of cheap oil. For example, the United Kingdom and Japan consume no more oil today than they did in 1973. After the North Sea oil fields were discovered, the UK continued a policy of high gasoline taxes so as to discourage consumption. Japan began an aggressive policy of diversifying away from its heavy dependence upon oil to one that included nuclear energy. It appears that it will likely take considerably higher oil prices to constrain U.S. oil demand.
The Energy Sector Will Remain a Strategic Investment Area for Us
As you can see, we have given this considerable thought and believe that energy will be a growing issue over the next several years; therefore, the energy sector will remain a strategic investment area for us, as it has been for several years. Should energy prices decline more than we expect and the share prices of several companies that we are monitoring decline appropriately, you will see us expand our energy holdings by a substantial degree. It would be remiss of me not to pay special acknowledgement to the book “Twilight in the Desert” by Matthew R. Simmons. This reinforced already strongly held opinions by both Rik and me.
Current Energy Holdings
ENSCO International Incorporated (ESV)
National Oilwell Varco, Inc. (NOV)
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN)
Rosetta Resources, Inc. (ROSE)
Rowan Companies, Inc. (RDC)
On Rowan Companies, Inc (RDC)
Robert Rodriguez: We added to our Rowan Companies holding because we believe the offshore-drilling business environment is extremely attractive currently, and we expect this trend to continue for a very long time. The company has no net debt while selling at less than 10x this year’s earnings. With a shortage of jack-up rigs internationally along with a balance between demand and supply in the Gulf of Mexico , offshore drilling day rates are extremely attractive for Rowan.
On Patterson- UTI Energy (PTEN)
Robert Rodriguez: Patterson- UTI Energy (PTEN), one of the two largest U.S. land drillers, declined over 25% for this reporting period and nearly 16% in the third quarter, in response to weaker natural gas prices. We repurchased all of the stock previously sold and we are now increasing our exposure. Investors are fearful that land-drilling day rates will decline because exploration and development companies will begin to defer some of their drilling activities. At our recent purchase price, PTEN could experience a 50% decline in earnings and we would still be paying barely 10x earnings. The company has no short- or long-term debt and is currently repurchasing stock.
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