Hola FJ2C,
Sigo estudiando VLO para comprar el valor cuando se de la vuelta y sobretodo cuando me entre algo de dinero :-)
Aunque sea un poco largo, te adjunto el "best of" de otros mensajes de Yahoo. Hay gente con buen criterio inversor.
Salu2
Pakor
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http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Energy/Oil_and_Gas_Operations/threadview?m=te&bn=19473&tid=159021&mid=159021&tof=8&frt=3#159021
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VLO's margins depend to a great extent the spreads between its products (gasoline & distillates) and crude (sour and sweet).
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Not short here-but I am waiting for the right entry point (40s).
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Energy in general contiues to be a good bet because the stocks for the sectors are still priced at levels assuming 45-55 dollar levels. Valero has the added advantage over integrated oils and E&P's because of refinery constraints emanating from environmental regulations. Moreover, the hurricanes last year cost VLO down time and repair and replacement costs in excess of insurance coverage.
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Finally, look again at the fundamentals before you short or unload VLO. Low multiples and an oligopoly in North American refining add up to a well positioned company and an oversold stock.
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Hold on! I never suggested shorting or selling VLO! I simply believe it can be purchased in the 40s after oil prices drop further. But when I do buy it, I will not be expecting a repeat of 2005's performance. VLO will be a good long term hold and will pay decent dividends
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never forget that the level of noise on this board is usually a good sign to buy. The complete non-sense in some posts, indicates that it is buying time.
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The glut of gasoline in the US is due more to the record cracks than to demand destruction. The high margins have attracted imports. Once the cracks decrease, imports will fall off and inventories will return to normal levels.
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What virtually everyone forgets or doesn't know to start with, is that the peak season for using crude is not the summer gasoline season, but winter heating oil. Just hang in there, it is going even lower later in September, but prices will recover later in November-December. While Europe can spare plenty of gasoline for the US in the summer, you won't see cheaper imports of finished heating oil/diesel from there come winter.
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Gasoline will not only continue to be strong in US but in emerging markets as well. While US growth is steady, potential for emerging markets is exponential. China and Indian economies are growing 6-8% or even higher. Oil prices are comfortably in the $65-$70 range over the next 5 years. Add to that, the refining capacity is not expected to increase much in the same period. The result, higher gasoline & distillate prices. More profits for VLO.
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http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Energy/Oil_and_Gas_Operations/threadview?m=te&bn=19473&tid=158391&mid=158391&tof=18&frt=3#158391
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In my mind, oil is long term in a range of $60-80...and in reality that isn't even that high in adjusted for inflation terms
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COP is another strong buy IMO.
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Investing and trading are 2 different things. Long term I think oil and oil stocks will go up. Short term, they may fall.
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I agree about COP..you get exposure to refining and oil at a ridiculously low P/E (I mean REALLY low) with cash coming in like crazy.
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